Bitcoin is attempting to form a higher low at $28,630 and if that happens, ETH, XTZ, KCS and AAVE may rally in the near term.
After declining for eight successive weeks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded sharply last week to finish higher by 6.2%. However, Bitcoin (BTC) has not been able to replicate the performance of the United States equities markets and is threatening to paint a red candle for the ninth week in a row.
A positive sign is that Bitcoin whales have been buying the market correction. Glassnode data shows that the number of Bitcoin whale wallets with a balance of 10,000 Bitcoin or more has risen to its highest level since February 2021. The accumulation in the whale wallets suggests that their long-term view for Bitcoin remains bullish.
Blockware Solutions highlighted that the Mayer Multiple metric which compares the 200-day simple moving average with the current price was languishing “near some of the lowest readings on record.” The firm said a few other indicators also suggest that Bitcoin is attempting to form a bottom.
If Bitcoin starts a recovery in the short term, certain altcoins are likely to follow it higher. Let’s study the charts of the top-5 cryptocurrencies that may lead the relief rally.
BTC/USDT
Bitcoin remains stuck inside a tight range between the downtrend line and the support at $28,630. The bears pulled the price below $28,630 on May 26 and May 27 but could not sustain the lower levels. This resulted in a rebound on May 28.
The bulls will now try to push the price above the downtrend line and challenge the 20-day exponential moving average ($30,538). If they succeed, the BTC/USDT pair could pick up momentum and the rally could reach the 50-day SMA ($35,181).
The positive divergence on the relative strength index (RSI) suggests that the bearish momentum could be weakening and a rally may be around the corner.
On the other hand, if the price turns down from the overhead resistance, the bears will again try to pull the pair below $28,630. If they manage to do that, the pair will complete a bearish descending triangle pattern, which has a target objective at $24,601.
The 20-EMA and the 50-SMA on the 4-hour chart have flattened out and the RSI is just above the midpoint, suggesting a balance between supply and demand.
If bulls drive the price above the downtrend line, the negative descending triangle pattern will be negated. That could result in a short squeeze as the short-term bears may close their positions. That could clear the path for a possible rally to the 200-SMA.
Conversely, the bears will come out on top if the price turns down and plummets below $28,630. That could result in a retest of the crucial support at $26,700.
ETH/USDT
Ethereum (ETH) has been in a downtrend but the bulls are attempting to stall the decline at the crucial support of $1,700. The price rebounded off this support on May 28 and the bulls are attempting to build on the recovery on May 29.
The RSI is forming a bullish divergence, indicating that the downtrend may be weakening. If bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA ($2,036), the ETH/USDT pair could rise to the overhead resistance at $2,159. The bears are expected to defend this level aggressively. If the price turns down from this resistance, the pair may remain range-bound between $2,159 and $1,700 for a few days.
On the other hand, if the price turns down from the current level or the 20-day EMA, the bears will again attempt to sink the pair below $1,700. If they succeed, the pair may resume its downtrend with the next major support at $1,300.
The bounce off the $1,700 support has reached the 20-EMA where the bears may mount a strong defense. If the price turns down from this level, it could enhance the prospects of a break below $1,700. If that happens, the downtrend may resume.
Conversely, if bulls push the price above the 20-EMA, the pair may rise to the 50-SMA. This level may again act as a resistance but if bulls clear this hurdle, the pair could rally to the psychological resistance at $2,000.
XTZ/USDT
Tezos (XTZ) is consolidating in a downtrend. Although bulls pushed the price above the 20-day EMA ($2) on May 24, they could not sustain the recovery. The price dipped back below the 20-day EMA on May 26.
The 20-day EMA is flattening out and the RSI is above 46, suggesting that the selling pressure is reducing. If bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA, the XTZ/USDT pair could rally toward the 50-day SMA ($2.45). If this resistance also gives way, the buyers will attempt to push the price above the uptrend line.
In contrast, if the price turns down from the current level, it will suggest that bears continue to defend the 20-day EMA. The sellers will then attempt to sink the pair below $1.75 which could open the doors for a fall to $1.64.
The 4-hour chart shows the recovery turned down from the 200-SMA but the pair bounced off the uptrend line. The bulls have pushed the price above the 50-SMA and will now attempt to clear the overhead hurdle at the 200-SMA. If they manage to do that, it will suggest the start of a short-term up-move.
Alternatively, if the price turns down from the current level or the 200-SMA, the pair may drop to the uptrend line. A break and close below this support could pull the price down to $1.61.
Related: Bitcoin to set a new record 9-week losing streak with BTC price down 22% in May
KCS/USDT
KuCoin Token (KCS) broke above the 20-day EMA ($15.61) on May 20 but the bulls could not push the price above the 50-day SMA ($17.19). This may have tempted short-term traders to book profits, which pulled the price back below the 20-day EMA on May 26.
The bears could not build upon their advantage and sustain the price below the 20-day EMA, indicating strong buying by the bulls at lower levels. The buyers have pushed the price back above the 20-day EMA on May 29.
If bulls sustain the price above the 20-day EMA, the possibility of a break above the 50-day SMA increases. If that happens, the KCS/USDT pair may rally to $18.44 and later to the 200-day SMA ($19.63).
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the current level, it will suggest that traders are selling on rallies. A break and close below $14.92 could open the doors for a further decline to $12.90.
The pair has been facing stiff resistance at the 200-SMA but the shallow correction indicates that bulls are buying on minor dips. If bulls push the price above the 200-SMA, the next stop could be $17.14. A break and close above this level could start the next leg of the up-move.
Conversely, if the price turns down from the overhead resistance, the bears may pull the pair down to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $14.20 and then to the 50% retracement level at $13.30. This zone is likely to act as a strong support.
AAVE/USDT
AAVE rallied to the 20-day EMA ($101) on May 23 but the bulls could not push the price above it. This suggests that bears continue to defend the level aggressively but a minor positive is that the buyers have not given up much ground.
If the price turns up and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it will indicate the start of a stronger relief rally. The AAVE/USDT pair could then rally to the 50-day SMA ($132) where the bears may again mount a strong defense.
Alternatively, if the price turns down from the current level or the 20-day EMA and breaks below $89, the short-term bulls who may have purchased at lower levels could close their positions. That could pull the price down to $79 and later to $64.
The 4-hour chart shows that the pair has been oscillating between $90 and $110 for some time. The 20-EMA and the 50-SMA are flattish and the RSI is just above the midpoint, suggesting a balance between supply and demand.
This equilibrium could tilt in favor of buyers if they push and sustain the price above $110. If they do that, the pair could rally toward $130 and then $143. Conversely, if the price plummets below $90, the bears will gain the upper hand. The pair could then decline to $80 and later to $70.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
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