Tuesday, March 30, 2021

Nic Carter takes aim at claims Bitcoin is an environmental disaster

Carter argues that mining is concentrated in areas where there is an excess of energy.

Coin Metrics co-founder Nic Carter has produced a well-researched rebuttal to some of the key claims suggesting power-hungry Bitcoin mining is causing an environmental disaster.

In an in-depth article called Noahbjectivity on Bitcoin mining penned on March 30, the Castle Island Ventures Partner responds to claims by Bloomberg columnist Noah Smith in a March 24 article titled Bitcoin miners are on a path to self-destruction.

The first claim Carter took aim at was that Bitcoin is unique among assets in that a rising price entails a greater energy draw. Carter stated that gold has the exact same trait in that higher prices result in increased mining and energy consumption.

Secondly, there was a claim by Smith that Bitcoin mining hogs local power resources depriving regular customers of electricity. However, according to figures produced by Carter, mining is concentrated in areas where there is actually an excess of unused energy.

Within China, the vast majority of mining occurs in four provinces: Xinjiang, Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, and Yunnan. Between them they accounted for 63% of the global Bitcoin hashrate from Q4 2019 to Q2 2020. These areas use a combination of coal, solar, wind, and hydropower and they all have a relatively low population density and an overabundance of energy.

Carter calls this surplus energy that will never make it to the grid ‘nonviral’ and delved deep into the figures to reveal that in previous years China has curtailed or sequestered 100 TWh on average worth of hydro, solar, and wind energy, collectively. Curtailing is a process that refers to removing  excess energy from the grid or public consumption often to maintain price levels.

Bitcoin mining has been estimated to consume between 89 TWh/year and 138 TWh, according to data from the Digiconomist and Cambridge University.

"Suffice to say, there’s enough nonviral energy out there to run Bitcoin many times over. It’s just a matter of deploying hashrate in the right locations, which miners are doing — aggressively."

If Bitcoin mining, which is relatively portable, is concentrated in areas where electricity is unused (and thus cheap) this complicates arguments that simply total up the power consumption.

For example Alex de Vries, founder of Digiconomist, wrote in a recent article:

“The record-breaking surge in Bitcoin price at the start of 2021 may result in the network consuming as much energy as all data centers globally, with an associated carbon footprint matching London’s footprint size.”

The Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index (CBECI) estimates Bitcoin’s annual electricity consumption is currently somewhere between that of Sweden and Malaysia.

In Smith’s original article he argued that Bitcoin developers needed to adopt an alternative to Proof-of-Work, citing Proof-of-Stake as a viable candidate. Ethereum is moving to Proof of Stake with Eth2, which is estimated to use 99.98% less electricity.

Carter doesn’t believe that Proof of Stake can compete in terms of security and decentralization however:

“This is a cornerstone of the anti-Bitcoin energy argument: the notion that you can have something for nothing with Proof of Stake. No energy consumption, yet still a functioning decentralized consensus. If this logic reminds you of perpetual motion machines, it’s because that’s exactly what is being proposed here: a completely free lunch where you get precisely the same assurances as Bitcoin with no costs whatsoever.”


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Michael Jordan, Will Smith join $305M funding round for NBA Top Shot maker Dapper Labs

Basketball legend Michael Jordan and Hollywood icon Will Smith are among a group of investors in Dapper Lab’s latest funding round.

NBA Top Shot maker Dapper Labs has secured about $305 million in new funding round from investors.

According to a report by Business Insider on Tuesday, past and present NBA stars like Michael Jordan, Alex Caruso, and Kevin Durant participated in the funding round. Other investors included The Chernin Group and Will Smith’s venture capital outfit Dreamers VC.

With this latest funding round, Dapper Labs now reportedly holds a $2.6 billion valuation. As previously reported by Cointelegraph, NBA Top Shot had grossed $230 million in sales as of the end of February.

According to a Dapper Labs spokesperson quoted by Business Insider, March trading figures have seen NBA Top Shot's total gross reach $483 million with more than 802,000 users on the platform.

Indeed, the NBA Top Shot boom is part of the current interest surrounding non fungible tokens, or NFTs. Earlier in March, an NFT collector reportedly refused a $1 million offer for an NBA Top Shot NFT originally acquired for $100,000 back in January.

Commenting on the platform’s success, Dapper Labs CEO Roham Gharegozlou remarked:

“NBA Top Shot is successful because it taps into basketball fandom — it's a new and more exciting way for people to connect with their favorite teams and players.”

Following the success of NBA Top Shot, Gharegozlou says Dapper Labs is looking to extend the “same magic” to other sports franchises. Back in February 2020, Dapper Labs inked a deal with mixed martial arts promoter Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC).

Dapper Labs also created CryptoKitties, one of the first NFT projects to gain mass appeal in the crypto space. During the height of the CryptoKitties craze, the digital cats breeding game became the largest Ethereum-based decentralized application.

Meanwhile, NFTs are seemingly becoming more mainstream with Saturday Night Live recently presenting a rap sketch to explain the new digital collectible phenomena in their usual satirical tone.



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One BTC will be worth a Lambo by 2022, and a Bugatti by 2023: Kraken CEO

Amid the threat of dollar debasement, Kraken’s Jesse Powell believes Lamborghinis and Bugattis may be a better measure of Bitcoin’s value in the future.

Appearing on Bloomberg, Kraken CEO Jesse Powell explained why he believes dollar-based long-term price predictions for Bitcoin are flawed, emphasizing the inflationary nature of fiat currencies.

Responding to a question asking Powell for end of year price predictions, Kraken’s CEO said: “I think I said Bitcoin is going to infinity and that’s kind of hard to comprehend because I’m measuring it in terms of dollars.”

Offering alternative measures for valuing Bitcoin, Powell speculated the value of Bitcoin may increase from its current 'price' or one BTC per Tesla Model 3 to “one Bitcoin per Lambo” by the end of the year, and to “one Bitcoin per Bugatti” by 2023. Powell added:

"To the crypto community, I think those kinds of assets are easier to measure Bitcoin against because you never know where the dollar is going to be. There could be 10 times as many U.S. dollars out there a year from now, so it’s really hard to measure Bitcoin against the dollar.”

While Bitcoin spent much of 2019 and the first half of 2020 trading for the price of a secondhand 2010 Honda Civic, one Bitcoin could have purchased a brand new Civic when the price broke into new all-time highs at the end of year.

When asked about Ethereum, Powell emphasized the importance of the booming non-fungible token sector, stating: “All of the NFT activity is really driving up the use of Ethereum.”

Powell also highlighted uncertainty surrounding when the Eth2 overhaul will be completed and noted that deposits to Ethereum’s staking contract are currently removing Ether from supply.

On the topic of altcoins, Powell pointed to the buzz surrounding Polkadot, alluding to perceptions the network may comprise “the next Ethereum” due to scaling and fee issues.

“There are a lot of other coins that are being launched on top of this network, and I think you’ll see a lot of things that were on Ethereum be ported over to Polkadot,” he said, noting the “lower transaction fees” associated with Polkadot.

Polkadot seeks to offer greater speed and efficiency than other crypto networks by processing transactions using a “parachain” architecture where multiple sharded chains operate in parallel. While parachains are yet to launch on Polkadot’s mainnet, the ecosystem's Acala Network, became the first project to secure a parachain slot on Polkadot’s Rococo testnet last week.

Although sharding is on the Eth2 roadmap, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin revealed earlier this month its developers are currently prioritizing the chain merge between Ethereum and Eth2. Buterin also expressed confidence that layer-two rollups will scale the network sufficiently over the short term while sharding is not a developmental priority. Optimism's rollups mainnet has since been delayed until July.



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LBRY fires back at SEC over 'aggressive and disastrous' securities complaint

LBRY is in the SEC’s firing line for selling unregistered securities. It claims the case could set a precedent that would affect much of the industry.

Blockchain company LBRY, Inc. has hit back at the Securities and Exchange Commission, saying a complaint filed against it threatens much of the crypto industry because it would define most tokens as securities. 

The SEC has been looking into the blockchain-based publishing platform LBRY, Inc. as part of a three-year investigation that started in May 2018.

According to the complaint filed by the SEC, the platform is alleged to have sold unregistered securities across multiple avenues including to institutional investors and platform users between 2016 and 2020.

The regulator is seeking a permanent injunction to prevent the company from selling more tokens, disgorgement of all funds received with interest, and to pay an undisclosed amount in civil penalties.

LBRY developed a decentralized video sharing platform called Odysee that allows viewers to “earn cryptocurrency for watching videos” and for creators to earn LBRY Credits for their work. Since 2016, 13 million LBC tokens were sold for $5 million in Bitcoin. A press release from the SEC states the total amount raised was $11 million, including USD and services from purchasers who participated in its offering.

According to LBRY, while it did not conduct an initial coin offering (ICO) and the SEC is not alleging fraud, its attempts to settle have been rejected by the Commission:

“The SEC declined to offer any terms that would have made it viable for U.S. citizens to exchange tokens or to allow LBRY Inc to continue to operate. We were willing to give them a pound of flesh, but they were only interested in our head.”

Despite already spending “more than $1 million on legal fees” and the momentous effort of “several thousand hours of team members' time” during the investigation, the company is not backing down, stating: “The SEC is advancing an aggressive and disastrous new standard that would make almost all blockchain tokens securities.”

“Classifying all actively-developed blockchain tokens as securities will be a bureaucratic nightmare for United States residents and businesses operating in the US.”

A petition on its website “helplbrysavecrypto.com” with more than 6,700 signatures to date calls on “the SEC to drop this case and establish clear standards for the cryptocurrency industry in the United States.”

LBRY claims that when it asked the SEC how it could operate legally, it was told that the regulatory body could not advise on that and could only say that they were breaking the law.

However the firm stated that should the SEC succeed in shutting down LBRY, Inc., the LBRY platform and ecosystem will remain unaffected as it is fully decentralized with “hundreds of people across six continents,” most of which are not LBRY employees, contributing to the network in 2020.



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The blacklist: Marathon only mining ‘fully compliant’ Bitcoin transactions

Marathon plans to divert all hash power to its new, regulatory compliant Bitcoin mining pool from May 1.

Major U.S.-based mining firm Marathon Digital Holdings has announced the launch of what it describes as the first North American Bitcoin mining pool that is “fully compliant with U.S. regulations.”

According to a March 30 announcement, the pool adheres to U.S. anti-money laundering guidelines and rules set out by the Office of Foreign Asset Control, or OFAC. Marathon will ensure the transactions processed by its pool meet regulatory standards by using technology exclusively licensed by DMG Blockchain allowing transfers to be filtered.

The firm will begin diverting 100% of its current hash power to the new pool from May 1. Marathon’s new pool also plans to begin accepting hash power pooled from other U.S.-based miners from June 1. By 2022, Marathon expects to have deployed 103,120 miners to direct 10.37 exahashes per second, or EH/s, to the mining pool — equal to roughly 6.4% of the Bitcoin network’s current combined hash rate.

By avoiding transactions executed by individuals on the U.S. Department of Treasury’s Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons List, Marathon claims its operations will be entirely regulatory compliant.

The announcement does not specify how DMG’s technology identifies whether transactions have been issued by individuals blacklisted by the Treasury Department.

Merrick Okamoto, Marathon’s chairman and CEO, asserted that despite the recent surge in institutional interest surrounding Bitcoin, a lack of regulatory assurances has deterred many firms from participating in Bitcoin mining:

“While institutional interest in Bitcoin is accelerating, many large funds and corporations have expressed concerns over purchasing Bitcoin that may have been tainted by nefarious actors.”

“While we appreciate some miners’ appetite for processing transactions indiscriminately, it is our belief that as a publicly listed company based in the United States, and as one focused on enabling more institutional adoption of Bitcoin, it is our responsibility to follow U.S. regulations,” he added.

Despite the apparent reluctance of institutions to participate in Bitcoin mining, analysts believe some U.S. investors have been speculating on the stocks of major mining firms as a way to access regulated exposure to the BTC markets.

Last week, Cointelegraph reported that Bitcoin mining stocks had outperformed BTC by 455% on average over the past 12 months, gaining roughly 5,000% over the same period that Bitcoin rallied 900%.

Fundstrat’s vice president of digital asset strategy, Leeor Shimron, speculated: “Until a Bitcoin ETF is approved, investors may view public mining companies as one of the only ways to get exposure to Bitcoin.”



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Oops! A 100% Bitcoin hodl outperformed CNBC's 2017 altcoin basket by 170%

New numbers conclude that the best returns come from cutting through the noise and simply buying Bitcoin.

Bitcoin (BTC) has produced phenomenal returns most years, but when it comes to maximizing them, it's best just to buy and hodl.

That was the conclusion from new data circulating on social media this week, which casts serious doubt on the merits of following investment advice from mainstream media.

Don't believe the hype?

Under the microscope was CNBC, which in 2017 offered viewers an investment portfolio made up of 30% Bitcoin and 70% altcoins.

Four years later, those who invested $10,000 at the time now have around $52,300. Had they just bought and hodled Bitcoin, however, they would have over $140,000.

"The 30% #BTC allocation is responsible for 75% of the return," Twitter account StatsBTC, which uploaded the numbers, noted in comments.

CNBC's portfolio came courtesy of well-known pundit Brian Kelly, months before it hit then all-time highs of $20,000. Altcoins also saw peaks, months later in early 2018, with most only to crash and never recover.

Subsequently, the network gained an unenviable reputation for acting as a buy signal for investors — ironically by telling them not to invest in Bitcoin. The same fate has since befallen the likes of gold bug Peter Schiff.

As Cointelegraph reported, fellow host Jim Cramer, on the other hand, has embraced Bitcoin thanks to persuasion from Morgan Creek Digital co-founder Anthony Pompliano. His investment, thought to be around $500,000, has made Cramer "a ton of money," he said earlier this month.

All hail the king

Meanwhile, even a longer-term HODL strategy will have suffered from exposure to altcoins at the expense of its Bitcoin presence.

According to Bob Simon, owner of the StatsBTC account, $100 divided equally between Bitcoin, Litecoin, XRP, Dogecoin and Peercoin in March 2014 would now be worth $6,000. A Bitcoin-only punt, by contrast, would sell for $12,130.

"An equally weighted basket of the top 5 cryptocurrencies has underperformed Bitcoin by over 50% over the past 7 years," he summarized.

Bitcoin vs. mixed investment returns. Source: Bob Simon/ Twitter

Analysts still believe that this coming summer will produce huge gains for altcoins, with one arguing that a peak price "Alt Season 2.0" has already begun.



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Powers On… Why the SEC is not your friend (and how to deal with that)

A former SEC attorney argues that Ripple's Brad Garlinghouse and Chris Larsen are being asked for documents that seem to demonstrate significant overreach.

Powers On... is a new monthly opinion column from Marc Powers, who spent much of his 40-year legal career working with complex securities-related cases in the United States after a stint with the SEC. He is now an Adjunct Professor at Florida International University School of Law, where he teaches a course on 'Blockchain, Crypto and Regulatory Considerations.'

While I was in private law practice for 35 years, after serving for five years in the Security and Exchange Commission’s Division of Enforcement, I came to learn certain truths. Especially when a company and its officers were subject to SEC or other governmental investigations and enforcement proceedings. 

Over time, it was my awareness of these truths that saved many clients untold personal stress and, in many cases, financial ruin and government public actions against them.

The litigation actions by the SEC in the Ripple enforcement proceeding highlight the need for conveying some simple truths regarding the SEC’s habit of overreaching as it pursues certain actions.

When I was with the agency, the Staff in the Division of Enforcement mainly comprised lawyers and investigators trained in finance or formerly employed by brokerage firms and mutual funds. These were SEC “lifers” who, for any number of reasons, clearly planned to make a career in public service and generally had a reasonable approach to enforcement. They had seen the ebb and flow of enforcement priorities in investigations and cases, as well as the types of cases emphasized, depending on the Administration in power at the time. They were unlikely to feel the need to be zealots in their handling of any particular case.

But then, as now, there were also those lawyers that saw the SEC as a stepping stone toward enhancing their future career prospects.

Which brings me to the first immutable truth. As immutable as blockchain technology itself.

Powers’ Immutable Truths: Number One

The SEC is not your friend. To the extent you provide the SEC the opportunity to roll over you, it will.

Immediate and consistent pushback is necessary to keep the government in check, and reduce the chances of a poor outcome. Let’s look at the SEC’s recent discovery requests in the SEC v. Ripple enforcement case filed last December before Judge Analise Torres of the SDNY, as an example of this strategy.

As most of you probably know, the SEC alleges that from 2013 through 2020 Ripple and its officers have promoted a continuous token offering which should have been registered with the agency. It claims that the token offerings were the sale of “investment contracts”. Ripple and two executives, Bradley Garlinghouse and Christian Larsen, are named as co-defendants in the lawsuit.

According to the SEC they directly violated, and aided the alleged violations by Ripple of the Section 5 registration provisions of the Securities Act of 1933. There are no allegations in the complaint of fraud either under the Securities Act or the anti-fraud provisions of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

And according to the Ripple court docket and filings, the SEC has sought the personal financial records from Garlinghouse and Larsen, for the past eight years, from both the defendants themselves and five banks plus the Federal Reserve of New York. This is despite no allegations that either of them had misappropriated any investor funds from the offerings, or committed fraud.

This is clear overreach, and the individual defendants’ response of objecting to this is right and appropriate. (This is regardless of the interesting tidbits set forth in the SEC’s complaint that the defendants had twice sought legal advice on the question of whether XRP was a “security” and were advised in the affirmative, plus that the SEC had previously sued Larsen for registration violations involving another of his companies in 2008.)

Judge Torres, overseeing the case, has referred discovery disputes to a federal court Magistrate Judge; and the individual defendants, through counsel, claim that the personal financial information sought is an invasion of privacy by the SEC, and that no legitimate and reasonable rationale related to the allegations of wrongdoing in the complaint has been articulated. They also note that under the federal statute put in place in the late 1970s to provide certain notice and rights to U.S. citizens from whom personal banking financial information is requested by the Government in its investigations of our citizens, the Right to Financial Privacy Act, courts would never tolerate such an overly broad and intrusive request spanning eight years of information.

The response by the SEC, according to the defendants’ letter of objection to the Magistrate, is that discovery is allowed to be broad in civil litigation. The SEC claims it wants to obtain these records to establish the “motive” of these individual defendants for seeking these token offerings for Ripple.

Nonsense! The defendants are right to push back on this.

Now, while some of you readers may say, “What is the big deal of providing this information, if they have nothing to hide? Or have not done anything wrong?” Well, it IS a big deal. If you give the government an inch, no matter how innocent the inch may seem, you have no assurance the inch will not turn into a foot. Which gets me to what I unabashedly call…

Powers’ Immutable Truths: Number Two

Only do or provide what is reasonable to the Government, since you NEVER know the true motives of the staffer on the other side.

Let me explain. As noted earlier, many government attorneys are selfless public servants and seek to do justice and the right thing. However, there are those in the government who seek to burnish their resume, and to have your client as the next notch in their proverbial belt with a “win at all costs” in the investigation or litigation. Unfortunately, it is not always easy to discern where that SEC attorney stands. Will your professional courtesy or reasonable action on behalf of your client lead to reciprocity? Or will it lead to never-ending requests from an overly aggressive and questionably ethical staffer? Which may lead to some unrelated problem for your client that the SEC was not investigating.

Unfortunately, the maxim that ‘less is more’ has never been truer. The less you offer, the more safe your client can feel. And that is codified in…

Powers’ Immutable Truths: Number Three

Never speak with or testify to the government, unless you can absolutely speak the truth without creating legal exposure for yourself. If you cannot, say NOTHING.

Either decline to be interviewed by either having your attorney make a “proffer” of what you would say, or assert your Fifth Amendment privilege against self-incrimination if subpoenaed to testify. It is much better to force the government to make its own case against your company or start-up, rather than you handing to the Staff the proof on a silver platter. The worse outcome is testifying falsely and giving the government an easy criminal case of perjury regarding false statements to a federal officer, when they may not have been able to make or prove a civil securities case.

Now, there are many nuances to all these points. And each investigation or litigation has its own set of facts and applicable law which has to be considered in how best to interact and proceed in matters involving the government. I also appreciate the school of thought, as advocated by the government, that if you provide “full cooperation” to the SEC or state regulator, or U.S. Attorney, they will be more lenient on you in any charges or penalties.

Well, I have generally found that “full cooperation” only advances your client’s interests if they are essentially ‘caught dead to rights’, with unambiguous documents and third party witnesses available to the government to independently prove the Staff’s case. Too often, however, full cooperation and “playing nice”, doesn’t cut it. In my experience, after seeing many defense and so-called white collar defense lawyers rolling over for the Staff, their clients end up in a worse position.

Which all leads, in true circular fashion, right back to the first immutable truth...

The SEC is not your friend.

Which is why the defense counsel for the Ripple founders is doing what is necessary for their clients… even if the SEC doesn’t think it’s “nice.”

Opinions stated herein do not constitute legal advice.



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