It may turn out to be a race to the finish for both traditional and crypto markets, if historical data is anything to go by.
Bitcoin (BTC) bulls are betting on a solid month for BTC price action, as November traditionally sees strong gains for United States stocks.
Data shows that November has been the best performing month for the S&P 500 since 1985.
November 2021 has stiff competition
With “Uptober” already the biggest month in terms of gains for Bitcoin in 2021, odds are stocks could act as a catalyst for further upside in “Moonvember.”
Median S&P 500 progress in November over the past 35 years has been just over 2% — making it the only month to achieve those median returns.
At the same time, over 70% of years have seen positive returns, and Bitcoin’s history is similar.
In November, BTC/USD has ended up higher than when it started with the exception of just two years: 2018 (-36.5%) and 2019 (-17.2%).
2020 conversely saw 43% gains, leaving the door open for a rematch in line with expectations.
BTC/USD monthly returns table. Source: Bybt
As Cointelegraph reported, these predict a volatile but ultimately extremely beneficial month as Bitcoin approaches its Q4 peak.
“Highest monthly close in history. Congrats Bitcoin and congrats y’all,” an optimistic TechDev summarized on Nov. 1.
“We are now headed toward our second monthly RSI peak like every cycle before. Nowhere near a top. Trust the indicators.”
TechDev is eyeing either copycat retrace of 2017’s top sequence or that of 1970s gold, both apt to send BTC/USD far beyond $100,000.
Bitcoin’s relationship to traditional markets has come into examination in recent months as the cryptocurrency begins to carve out its own path away from macro.
A test of trader resolve may come as soon as this week as the Federal Reserve prepares new comments on asset purchase tapering.
For Bitcoin, the decision whether or not to allow a regulated exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the U.S. this month may yet steer price action far away from predictions — especially if a rejection is seen.
As proponents point out slowness in following other countries, VanEck — one of over 40 applicants — has revealed it is mulling applying to launch a spot ETF in Australia.
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Former Goldman Sachs partner NYDIG partook in Bottlepay’s seed funding round in March 2021.
Bitcoin (BTC) investment firm New York Digital Investment Group, or NYDIG, has announced the acquisition of United Kingdom-based micropayment service Bottlepay for an estimated fee between $280 million and $300 million.
NYDIG previously participated in the company’s $15.4-million seed funding round in February, a raise that was led by British billionaire investor Alan Howard and saw the company valued in excess of $50 million.
Utilizing the Bitcoin Lightning Network, Bottlepay’s mobile application service enables users across the U.K. and Europe to transfer small amounts, known as micropayments, of Bitcoin and traditional fiat currencies such as the pound sterling and euro.
In March, following previous integrations of Discord and Reddit, the digital application announced the integration of Bitcoin payments into social network platform Twitter, enabling account holders to send the asset with the simple tweet format “@bottlepay send 1,000 sats to @twitteruser.”
Bottlepay founder Pete Cheyne shared his optimism on the future of the payments service following the acquisition by NYDIG:
“When we set out to build Bottlepay, we wanted to unlock the financial infrastructure of the future. We’re excited to be joining an industry leader like NYDIG who shares our vision for the future of money.”
Bottlepay ceased operations in late 2019 following the introduction of new Anti-Money Laundering regulations in the European Union, with its U.K.-based developer, Block Matrix, stating that the stringent legislation jeopardized the identity and privacy of the community and therefore declined to continue pursuing the project.
Following this saga, Bottlepay overhauled the core infrastructure of its Bitcoin wallet to comply with the European Union’s 5th Anti-Money Laundering Directive, an initiative aimed to enhance the transparency of digital transactions across Europe.
Ross Stevens, founder and executive chairman of NYDIG, and Robert Gutmann, co-founder and CEO of NYDIG, shared a joint statement on the regulatory credibility they witnessed within the Bottlepay service:
“The Bottlepay team has built world-class infrastructure for Lightning and bitcoin payments, and they have done so with the same level of regulatory and compliance rigor that our customers expect from NYDIG today. NYDIG is on a mission to bring bitcoin to all, and this acquisition brings us one step closer to fulfilling that goal.”
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Huobi previously launched a $10-million fund to invest in projects focused on GameFi, a mix of gaming NFTs and DeFi.
Huobi Group, the company operating one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, is launching its own nonfungible token (NFT) marketplace, following in the steps of other major crypto exchanges.
Huobi has rolled out a trial for Huobi NFT, an NFT marketplace allowing users to buy and trade NFT artwork and collectibles in numerous sectors, such as games, art, animation and music, Huobi Group announced on Monday.
According to the announcement, the launch marks a milestone in the extension of Huobi’s metaverse strategy, a concept combining multiple technologies such as virtual reality to bring a 3D virtual environment featuring activities like online gaming and others.
As part of the strategy, Huobi in September launched a $10-million fund to invest in early-stage projects involved in GameFi, a mix of gaming-focused NFTs and decentralized finance. The NFT marketplace will also play a big role in the company’s global expansion strategy as it adds a new asset class to its portfolio of blockchain and cryptocurrency-focused products.
“Huobi has been working on projects in the GameFi and NFT markets, so the launch of the Huobi NFT marketplace has been in the works for some time. We look forward to introducing this project to our global community,” Huobi Group director of strategy Jeff Mei noted.
The announcement did not mention whether the platform would apply Huobi’s proprietary blockchain, Huobi Chain, or the exchange’s native cryptocurrency, Huobi token (HT).
Huobi did not immediately respond to Cointelegraph’s request for comment. This article will be updated pending new information.
The news comes shortly after social media giant Facebook officially changed its company name to Meta, marking its first major rebrand and increasing ambitions beyond social media. Apart from broad plans for its metaverse, Facebook has also been struggling to launch its own cryptocurrency, now named Diem.
The Squid Game token was surging despite multiple scam warnings and topped above $2,800 before plummeting to less than $0.01.
Following a mind-blowing price surge, the Squid Game (SQUID) token plummeted over 99% shortly after Twitter flagged its “official” accounts on the social media platform as suspicious.
According to data on CoinMarketCap (CMC), the SQUID token experienced its first downward move on Monday, erasing its entire gains from as much as $2,861 and dropping below $1 in a matter of minutes.
At the time of writing, SQUID is trading at $0.0054, down about 99% over the past 24 hours with a trading volume of $13 million.
According to CMC, the SQUID token has a “self-reported” market capitalization of $2.8 million at the time of publication. “The CMC team has not verified the project’s market cap,” CMC’s warning reads. The token’s fully diluted market cap is $5 million, down over 99%.
SQUID all-time price chart. Source: CoinMarketCap
The drop comes shortly after Twitter flagged accounts reportedly associated with the SQUID token as suspicious, including the original account, which has over 70,000 subscribers. After this account was restricted, the Squid Game token developers attempted running other accounts, which were also subsequently closed.
As previously reported by Cointelegraph, the crypto community has been suspecting the SQUID token of being a scam from the very beginning due to its apparently fake founders and blocked comments on Twitter. On Friday, CoinGecko co-founder Bobby Ong said that the token is “most likely a scam,” noting that the firm did not list it because it didn’t meet their listing criteria. At the time, the token was trading around $5.
Multiple warnings in the crypto community did not prevent a staggering rally of the token, with its price seeing astronomical gains, reaching $90 as of Monday, and then hitting over $2,000 in several minutes.
Major global publications like CNBC emphasized that the SQUID token was implementing “anti-dumping technology,” which was preventing holders from selling the token, without noting that the project could be a scam.
The Squid Game token’s developers did not respond to Cointelegraph’s requests for comment. PancakeSwap, a decentralized exchange and the only market for trading the token, did not reply to Cointelegraph following a press inquiry on Friday.
A lot of my normie friends bought this $SQUID game token and couldn't sell i ("anti-dump feature")
October 2021, with 40% gains, becomes the best for Bitcoin price action since December 2020, even beating the Q1 run.
Bitcoin (BTC) sees a volatile start to a new week and a new month after its first ever monthly close above $60,000 — what’s next?
After a highly anticipated end to “Uptober,” bulls are looking to November to provide the next phase of what they hope — and sometimes promise — will be a BTC price surge like no other.
The timing varies, and so do the predictions. In store for BTC/USD this month could be a monthly close of nearly $100,000 — but also a dip to near $50,000.
With everything to play for and solid buyer support in the upper $50,000s holding, Cointelegraph takes a look at what could help shape Bitcoin price action in the coming week.
October 2021 becomes best month since 2020
Regardless of what comes next, market participants are in a celebratory mood this week as Bitcoin sees the highest monthly close in its history.
Not only $60,000, but $61,000 has now become the target to beat for November.
Bitcoin is anything but “up only” on short timeframes, however, and Sunday’s close was met with noticeable downside volatility post factum — a trip to $59,500 — before another surprise took it above $62,000 hours later.
Perhaps slightly nervous are fans of PlanB’s “worst case scenario” price predictions, these calling for at least $63,000 for the end of October.
While still more or less on track, for the series to continue its historical accuracy, $98,000 needs to be on the table by the end of this month.
For PlanB himself, however, the results have been more than satisfactory.
Aug $47K✅
Sep $43K✅
Oct $61K new monthly close ATH!✅
Ok ok, 3% rounding error .. close enough for me
Next targets: Nov>$98K, Dec>$135K pic.twitter.com/7LSnQBYJ33
“Yes, Bitcoin might not close above $63K this month,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe meanwhile added about the situation.
“However, @100trillionUSD his hitrate on the stock-to-flow model is way better than your trading performance, so I wouldn’t really roast him at all. Bitcoin at $61K is just as fine and close enough.”
After a correction from overnight lows, BTC/USD is trading at around $62,000. October, then, was its best month since December 2020, with returns just shy of 40%.
Those looking for something that truly is in “up only” mode need look no further than Bitcoin network fundamentals.
This week, difficulty will put in its eighth consecutive positive adjustment — something which has not happened since 2018.
Reflective of the increasingly competitive mining arena, the mining difficulty has now all but made up for the losses it necessarily inflicted after China forced miners to down tools in May.
Difficulty will increase to 21.89 trillion this week, just over 3 trillion below all-time highs.
Hash rate — the measure of processing power dedicated to mining — tells a similar story.
Despite being impossible to “measure” in definitive terms, hash rate is still trending towards new all-time highs, estimates show.
Raw data trends up and down, and different estimates often end up with considerably different readings. The weekly average hash rate, however, now stands at around 159 exahashes per second (EH/s) — closer than ever to the 180 EH/s record from April.
Bitcoin 7-day average hash rate chart. Source: Blockchain
Hodlers hodl on
September provided a golden “buy the dip” opportunity for Bitcoin buyers, and October was likewise not without its brief retracements.
Did you buy the dip? If you did, you added to the increasingly strong cohort of long-term hodlers whose conviction has only increased in October.
As noted in research from major exchange Kraken last week, the price gains and run to $67,100 all-time highs have failed to tempt hodlers to sell BTC.
“Notably, while long-term holders were unfazed by the retracement last month and used it as an opportunity to continue accumulating, this trend has not changed despite a significant rebound in price to new all-time highs near $67,000,” researchers concluded.
“In other words, the supply shock bought by long-term holders last month has only grown stronger this month.”
It is these entities, rather than short-term speculators, who are driving price performance in Q4 this year, they add.
This chimes with previous analysis, notably by analyst Willy Woo, showing that the so-called “hodlers of last resort” or “Rick Astley” investors remain committed to their investment. Among the long-term holders, since 2020, are miners themselves.
“Since 2020 miners have been HODLers (and buyers) of BTC, this is a sea change in behaviour,” Woo noted this weekend.
“Miners have not been in sustained accumulation behaviour since the 2009-2014 era.”
Bitcoin miner supply 1-hop chart. Source: Kraken
Exchange balances lowest since October 2018
On the topic of supply shock, the picture from exchanges is grim — from the perspective of a Bitcoin bear.
According to fresh data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, exchange BTC reserves are now at their lowest in three years.
At that time, in late 2018, Bitcoin was heading into the pit of its previous bear market, one which bottomed out in December at $3,100.
Since then, price action has changed by an order of magnitude, but balances are still dwindling — all pointing to the scale of the potential shock should demand increase heavily from here.
Exchanges now control 2.47 million BTC, while at its peak in April 2020, over 3.1 million BTC stood on their orderbooks.
Balance changes can vary considerably between exchanges. Over the past 24 hours, for example, Coinbase Pro led the decrease, down almost 20,000 BTC, while some other players saw slight increases in their balance.
Markets expect Fed tapering announcement
The coming week could produce some familiar trends on traditional markets — and their traditional knock-on impact on crypto markets.
These could come thanks to fresh comments from the United States Federal Reserve on coronavirus management Tuesday and Wednesday, as markets expect further cues on asset-buying tapering.
This comes as inflation ramps up worldwide, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell previously admitted that the accompanying narrative — supply chain crisis — will likely persist “well into next year.”
“I think the Fed has pretty well determined to start the taper pretty quickly. We expect them to announce it next week and then start it soon thereafter, so that's pretty well carved in stone,” Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab, told Yahoo Finance last week.
“I think the big debate now is how quickly the Fed moves toward actually raising rates. The expectation in the market has really shifted to expecting as many as two rate hikes in 2022 and 2023... that’s a pretty aggressive pace of tightening.”
Such conditions serve to increase Bitcoin’s attractiveness as an inherently deflationary asset class with a mathematically-verifiable supply cap.
Institutional inflows into extant Bitcoin investment products, along with the newly-launched futures exchange-traded funds (ETFs), highlight growing demand.
Purpose Bitcoin ETF assets under management vs. BTC/USD chart. Source: Bybt
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Hong Kong police have reportedly been notified of the incident, with the primary suspect having filed a police report and handed a computer over to authorities.
After launching via a Discord channel on Oct. 28, AnubisDAO went on to raise roughly 13,256.4 ETH using Alchemistcoin’s liquidity bootstrapping protocol (LBP) Copper. However, the funds were unexpectedly sent to a different address roughly 20 hours into the LBP.
CNBC spoke to one investor who claims to have lost almost $470,000 to AnubisDAO. The investor, Brian Nguyen, conceded to subscribing to a “buy first, do research later mentality,” describing the loss as “pretty painful.”
Nguyen noted that he was attracted to AnubisDAO because of its canine-themed branding amid the meteoric gains recently reaped by some dog-token investors after seeing Anubis promoted on Twitter by prominent pseudonymous DeFi advocate “0xSisyphus.”
Anubis is the Greek name for the Egyptian god of death and the underworld, with Egyptian imagery depicting the god as donning the body of a human and the head of a dog.
Investors appear to have lost roughly $57 million worth of Ether in what many are describing as a rug-pull executed by the upstart canine-themed OympusDAO fork, AnubisDAO.
0xSisyphus has published a detailed timeline outlining AnubisDAO’s formation and launch, and claims to have engaged law enforcement in both the United States and Hong Kong. 0xSisyphus has also offered to cease the civil proceedings should the perpetrator return the stolen finds minus a 1,000 ETH bounty.
In lieu of a case number which can be released to the public (hopefully this is available tomorrow), please see below for confirmation I am actually in touch with authorities https://t.co/jCgOwaq129
According to 0xSisyphus, the idea for an OlympusDAO fork inspired by Shiba Inu’s branding arose from discussions among members of the PebbleDAO project during Oct. 26 and Oct. 27.
A Telegram for the project was created on the 27th, with its six original members all hailing from PebbleDAO. The following day it is decided that the pseudonymous founding member “Beerus” would be tasked with deploying the LBP — a decision that 0xSisyphus now describes as a “critical mistake”:
“This was the critical mistake. This should have been done from the original multisig wallet.”
With just hours left until LBP was scheduled to close on Oct. 29, Beerus claimed “to have opened a malicious link from a PDF” and exposed the private keys used for the LBP launch. 13,556 Ether was then pulled from the LBP shortly after, however Beerus’ personal wallet funds appear to remain “intact and under his control.”
0xSisyphus also notes that “security researchers provided the PDFs from phishing emails” distributed during the day Beerus claimed to have clicked the malicious link, noting at “at this point, none have found any malicious content contained in the PDFs.”
Beerus’ real-world information is also collated and partially published to Twitter and Hong Kong authorities are contacted on Oct. 29. Beerus filed a report and turned one computer over to Hong Kong police the following day.
0xSisyphus also notes that wallets associated with the incident have since sent ETH to Coinbase, adding that the exchange has been notified of the transactions.
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Major Bitcoin miners have set up shop in a former aluminium smelting plant in the small Texan town of Rockdale.
Two Bitcoin mining giants are duking it out for cheap electricity in the tiny town in Texas.
Both Bitdeer, a mining firm that spun out from Chinese giant Bitmain, and Riot Blockchain, one of leading publicly traded Bitcoin mining firms in the United States, are operating data centers hosted at a former aluminium smelting facility in the Texan town of Rockdale.
The town’s aluminium smelting plant was previously the world’s largest, until the company that ran it, Alcoa, began winding up operations in 2008. According to Lee Bratcher, president of the Texas Blockchain Council, the facility’s energy capacity was wasted from Alcoa’s departure until the miners set up shop.
Despite Rockdale comprising a tiny rural town of just 5,600 people, it exhibits all the benefits sought after by industrial-scale miners — crypto-friendly politicians, large plots of land hosting abandoned industrial infrastructure rip for repurposing, and dirt-cheap electricity prices thanks to Texas’ deregulated market.
Rockdale Mayor John King describes the relationship between local grid operator, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), and miners as mutually beneficial. He emphasized that miners regularly consume electricity power that would otherwise be wasted, and they can also shut down operations instantly should power be needed elsewhere. He added:
“Miners are committed to buying a certain amount of power and what they do is they sell it back at market [value] and make a profit. They have a contract of two cents or three cents...and they can sell it for $9 a kilowatt hour.”
The firm now estimates that the facility is producing more than 500 BTC per month from its facility in Rockdale. At current prices, the mined coins equate to $30 million per month. Riot says the site hosts 100,000 mining rigs.
Texan lawmakers are pushing for a further expansion in the state’s Bitcoin mining embrace, with Senator Ted Cruz describing mining as a means to capture natural gas that the state currently flares.
Speaking during the Oct. 10 Texas Blockchain Summit, Cruz argued that natural gas is currently being flared in West Texas because “there is no transmission equipment to get that natural gas where it could be used the way natural gas would ordinarily be employed.”
“Use that power to mine Bitcoin. Part of the beauty of that is the instant you’re doing it you’re helping the environment enormously because rather than flaring the natural gas you’re putting it to productive use,” he added.
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