Bitcoin Set for $288K Bull Run in 2020, Popular BTC Price Model Says

The latest update of Bitcoin’s S2FX price model shows July is beginning exactly as required for a long-term bullish trajectory to continue.

Bitcoin (BTC) may be struggling to hit $10,000, but its progress is right on track, new stock-to-flow data confirms.

Adding a new update to his model on July 1, stock-to-flow model creator PlanB showed that Bitcoin is behaving exactly as its bullish history demands.

Bitcoin adds second “red dot”

The BTC S2F Cross Asset Model (S2FX) uses color-coded dots to analyze Bitcoin price action relative to the date of its next block reward halving.

Dots immediately after halving, like at present, are in red, and historically precede a jump in Bitcoin price which PlanB often refers to as being higher by “an order of magnitude.”

Reflected in the model, the next order of magnitude shift is imminent — it should start before the end of 2020. Between then and the next halving in 2024, the model focuses on a price of $288,000 for BTC/USD, with the potential for much higher peaks.

“#Bitcoin S2F chart update .. RED DOT #2,” PlanB summarized on Twitter, referring to June and July’s markings on the chart.

Stock-to-flow remains a steadfast bullish take on long-term Bitcoin price action, despite fielding considerable criticism this year. 

PlanB maintains that those critics have yet to produce a viable alternative to his model, which has traditionally tracked price behavior extremely accurately. 

Bitcoin S2FX price model as of July 1. Source: PlanB/ Twitter

“Typical” month could spark $12K BTC price 

Analyzing monthly returns during the last halving period from 2016 to 2020, PlanB highlighted the “very asymmetrical” nature of Bitcoin price performance. 

As such, for BTC/USD to leave its current stagnant levels at around $9,000 and hit $12,000, all that is needed is a “typical” month of solid 30% gains.

Bitcoin monthly returns during the last halving period. Source: PlanB/ Twitter

Nonetheless, Bitcoin’s considerable correlation to the S&P 500 forms a focus for macro factors dictating likely resistance to even $10,000. 

Against a backdrop of pressure on stock markets, analysts broadly expect that BTC/USD will continue to act in line with macro swings — no matter how intense these become.

Tone Vays, for example, has stated he does not believe that the pair will go above $10,000 until 2021.

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Beijing Plans to Foster DLT Unicorns Through New Blockchain Investment Plan

China’s capital city has unveiled an ambitious plan to transform Beijing into a global hub for private blockchain innovation and leader in public DLT deployment.

The municipal government of Beijing has unveiled a 20-point plan to accelerate the development and deployment of distributed ledger technologies (DLT) and turn Beijing into both a global and national hub for blockchain tech.

According to an announcement published on July 1, the plan seeks to “promote theoretical innovation, technological breakthroughs, [...] talent cultivation,” and “create new economic growth.”

The government will provide continued financial support for the plan throughout its course.

Beijing wants to host DLT unicorns

The Beijing Blockchain Innovation Development Action Plan 2020–2022 outlines the city’s intent to solidify itself as a global leader in both private blockchain innovation and public DLT deployment by the end of the next year.

Fostering a good business climate for blockchain innovation is cited as a top objective of Beijing, with “cultivating a group of unicorn enterprises” listed among the plan’s goals.

To promote innovation, the city will establish a “blockchain industry innovation development base” spanning the city's top districts for financial and technological innovation. 

Beijing also plans to promote the establishment of standards of practice for the blockchain sector.

The city hopes to “cultivate a group of unicorn enterprises and leading enterprises with global influence” through its initiatives.

Beijing to establish blockchain research institutes

The plan outlines initiatives to support research in key areas relating to DLT — including cryptography, high-performance computing and chip technology.

Beijing will establish a blockchain-focused research and development institution that will work closely with China’s existing research institutions and universities. The Beijing Blockchain Research Institute will be tasked with researching the “performance, security, privacy protection, scalability, and data authenticity” of DLT platforms.

The institutions will also research “network models, consensus mechanisms, distributed storage, zero-knowledge proofs, secure multi-party computing, cross-chain protocols, smart contracts, chains On-chain collaboration, and regulatory technology.”

Beijing will apply blockchain to public administration 

Beijing’s government also seeks to encourage “research institutions, universities, and enterprises to build on [...] blockchain” and contribute to the creation of an “independent and controllable underlying open-source technology platform.”

In addition to fostering private innovation, the plan outlines numerous public applications for DLT, including developing a blockchain-based directory system, digital identity platform, government data-sharing platform, and unified social credit applications — all of which will be capable of cross-chain interaction.

Beijing also hopes to “promote data sharing [and] business collaboration in government services” across departments and regions through the creation of a blockchain-based “common infrastructure for government services.”

“We will be the first to focus on real estate registration [and] unified electronic bills in the field of finance and taxation,” the announcement added, emphasizing the reduced costs and efficiency savings offered by DLT-based solutions.

Beijing will also invest in traceability projects to promote public safety in matters concerning “food, hazardous waste, emergency equipment, rescue funds,” and medical records, among other areas.

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Who’s Buying Bitcoin? Retail Demand Expected to Double by 2024 Halving

New data shows Bitcoin accumulation by retail investors continues to surge despite the economic downturn and increasing inflows from institutional investors.

The latest research from ZUBR derivatives exchange published June 29 found that participation from retail investors is increasing despite the longstanding narrative that institutional adoption would be required to propel crypto prices higher. 

With the recent halving being nothing more than a distant memory and Bitcoin (BTC) price lingering in the $9,100 range, the current price action is far from the post-halving surge that many retail and institutional investors expected. 

Despite the lackluster price action, a multitude of bullish factors like record growth in the number of Bitcoin whales, a new all-time high in the number wallet addresses containing less than 1 BTC, record BTC outflow from exchanges, and Bitcoin’s recently achieving its third-best Q2 performance ever show remarkable growth in investor participation with the top-ranked digital asset. 

Moreover, increasing Bitcoin demand from Grayscale Investments, Square and other companies suggest that demand is coming from both institutional investors as well as retail. 

Total number of BTC held in precise number addresses (1-10 BTC). Source: Chainalysis

Meanwhile, sourcing data from Chainalysis, ZUBR observed that in April 2020 wallet addresses containing 1 to 10 Bitcoin had risen past 500,000 and that “these addresses have been growing every month since the start of the 2018 bear market after the price of Bitcoin hit its peak.” 

According to ZUBR:  

“By the time the next reward era comes around in 2024, retail could potentially account for eating up over 50% of the physical supply.”

In 2020, much discussion has been dedicated to the perceived correlation between equities markets and Bitcoin. As markets tanked in March 2020, risk-on assets like Bitcoin swiftly followed suit. 

Typically, a sharp drop in value such as the 50% Bitcoin price drop that occurred on March 13 would dampen demand alongside the downturn in equities markets. But data from ZUBR shows the opposite. 

Even as the Bitcoin price dropped more than 50% on Black Thursday, demand from retail investors remained strong and there was no discernable decrease in the amount of Bitcoin held in wallet addresses associated with retail investors.

Month-on-month BTC increase/decrease in precise addresses (1-10). Source: Chainalysis

Currently, 900 Bitcoins are mined each day and this figure is slated to drop to 450 by the next halving in 2024. ZUBR forecasts that by the 2024 halving retail demand could exceed 250 BTC per day on average or half of the new available daily supply. 

Bitcoin retail demand estimates versus supply. Source: Chainalysis, ZUBR

What’s more, this retail demand figure could actually exceed ZUBR’s estimate as their data only focused on wallet addresses with whole numbers instead of including accounts with fractional BTC holdings. 

While it’s difficult to forecast Bitcoin’s future price evolution, it is clear that retail investors are not being pushed out of the sector by the influx of institutional funds. 

If the forecasts by ZUBR and Chainalysis come to fruition, smaller investors will actually play a larger role by 2024 in Bitcoin’s network and value dynamics.

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Bitcoin’s Mining Difficulty Has Rarely Been This Static in a Decade

Bitcoin's mining difficulty just posted the smallest percentage change in 10 years.

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Swiss Government Makes Moves to Encourage Crypto Businesses

The Swiss government is making key legislative changes to financial laws to improve legal conditions for blockchain businesses.

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Stefan Molyneux Gets $100K in Crypto Donations After YouTube Ban

White supremacist Stefan Molyneux received roughly $100,000 in donations following the removal of his YouTube channel.

Online supporters have donated nearly $100,000 in cryptocurrency to white supremacist and alt-right activist Stefan Molyneux following his removal from YouTube for “fomenting violence and hatred.”

After Molyneux posted a video to his Twitter account on June 29 stating YouTube had banned him from the platform, he issued a request for donations in cryptocurrency through his website. The alt-right figure lists addresses for Bitcoin (BTC), Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Ether (ETH), Dash (DASH), Skycoin (SKY), Dogecoin (DOGE) and Monero (XMR).

As of press time, his supporters have sent 433 BCH, dozens small Bitcoin transactions of mostly 0.001 BTC or less, three small ETH donations totaling roughly $10, 0.3 DASH, no Skycoin, and no DOGE. Altogether, the white supremacist netted about $100,000 in crypto since June 29.

Molyneux made a similar request for crypto donations to his social media followers in January, when YouTube revoked his channel’s YouTube Partner Program. This action prevented him from earning money on the platform. 

"We have strict policies prohibiting hate speech on YouTube, and terminate any channel that repeatedly or egregiously violates those policies,” a spokesman for the platform told CNN in response to the ban, saying that Molyneux’s removal was part of an update to “better address supremacist content” promoting such speech. 

The Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) describes Molyneux as “a skilled propagandist and an effective communicator within the racist alt-right and pro-Trump ranks” promoting scientific racism and eugenics. At press time, his Facebook and Instagram pages are still active, but his PayPal account was terminated in November.

Not all neo Nazis getting paid

YouTube removed six high-profile alt-right figures promoting hate speech and violence on its platform in June. Joining Molyneux is Richard Spencer, the American Renaissance group, former KKK leader David Duke, and others. Richard Spencer is the white nationalist famous for calling BTC the “currency of the alt-right.”

The SPLC currently tracks identified Bitcoin wallets that help provide donations to neo Nazis like Molyneux. Spencer’s addresses have received only 0.88920026 BTC — approximately $8,135 at press time — but none of the donations were made following his channel ban yesterday. The only known address for American Renaissance shows no donations at all.

The center says hate group leaders and other influential extremists prefer crypto donations because “no company and no government” can intervene to stop the money from flowing to less-than-reputable causes. 

Some groups like the SPLC have at least attempted to track any funds going towards white supremacists. Cointelegraph reported following the alt-right rally and murder in Charlottesville that a Twitter bot — NeonaziWallets — was providing updates every time a BTC transaction is posted to known wallets controlled by neo-Nazis.

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CoinGecko Adds Crypto Exchanges' Cybersecurity Ratings to Trust Score

Crypto data platform CoinGecko has partnered with cybersecurity firm Hacken to incorporate the security of crypto exchanges into its Trust Score metric.

Cryptocurrency market data aggregator CoinGecko has updated its Trust Score algorithm to consider the cybersecurity standards of the more than 400 cryptocurrency exchanges listed on its platform.

From July 1, 20% of CoinGecko’s Trust Score will be determined according to a cybersecurity rating provided by security technology company Hacken. 

According to an announcement, the algorithm update will provide “a more holistic overview of cryptocurrency exchanges.”

Speaking to Cointelegraph, CoinGecko co-founder and COO Bobby Ong stated that the firm has “wanted to work closely with a cybersecurity company to incorporate exchanges' cybersecurity score since [introducing] Trust Score in May 2019,” but that CoinGecko “did not manage to find any suitable partner to help us with this endeavor until now.”

CoinGecko scores exchanges on security

Hacken’s cybersecurity score seeks to measure “the ability of an exchange to maintain a secure operating environment for both the platform and its users.”

The score grades exchanges from one to 10 based on analysis of “server [and] user security, bug bounty of crowdsourced preventive measures, as well as historical hack cases.”

Ong stated that the integration followed several months of discussions between the two firms, with the partnership also slated to see collaboration to “educate the crypto community on improving personal cybersecurity practices.”

Dyma Budorin, CEO of Hacken, described cryptocurrency exchanges as among “the most complex and financial platforms,” that have become the “main targets of the growing black hat hackers community."

CoinGecko to expand derivatives metrics

Ong noted that CoinGecko plans to further develop its Trust Score over 2020, stating, “There are several other metrics which we are researching for future Trust Score algorithm updates to make it more robust, holistic, and less prone to manipulation to give a better reflection of exchanges' overall health.”

CoinGecko also plans to launch new metrics tracking the crypto derivatives market this year.

“The crypto market is moving really fast and we are constantly on the ground observing trends in the market,” said Ong.

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