Saturday, December 31, 2022

SBF to enter plea deal, Mango’s exploiter arrested, and Celsius news: Hodler’s Digest, Dec. 25-31

Top Stories This Week

Bankman-Fried may enter plea in NY federal court next week before Judge Lewis Kaplan

Former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried is scheduled to appear in court on the afternoon of Jan. 3 to enter a plea on two counts of wire fraud and six counts of conspiracy against him in relation to the collapse of the FTX cryptocurrency exchange. After being released on a $250 million bail bond, Bankman-Fried reportedly met with Michael Lewis, author of The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine, a bestseller that was turned into a movie, spurring speculation that a film about the disgraced exchange’s saga is on the way.

SBF borrowed $546M from Alameda to fund Robinhood share purchase

In another headline related to Sam Bankman-Fried, an affidavit by the founder of FTX revealed that he previously borrowed over $546 million from Alameda Research to fund a purchase of Robinhood shares. Later, those same shares were used by Bankman-Fried as collateral for a $600 million loan taken by Alameda from digital asset lender BlockFi. The shares are currently frozen and are worth around $450 million. BlockFi filed a lawsuit seeking to receive the collateral shares in November.

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Gen Z and the NFT: Redefining Ownership for Digital Natives

Argo Blockchain sells top mining facility to Galaxy Digital for $65M

In a bid to survive the ongoing bear market, cryptocurrency mining firm Argo Blockchain sold its Texas flagship mining facility, Helios, for $65 million. The new owner is Mike Novogratzs crypto investment firm Galaxy Digital, which will also provide Argo with a new $35 million equipment finance loan to help the company reduce its debt. The deal will allow Argo’s mining operations to continue while reducing total debt, improving liquidity and improving operating structure..

Mango Markets exploiter arrested on fraud charges Maybe it was illegal

Avraham Eisenberg, the hacker who stole $110 million from decentralized exchange Mango Markets, was arrested in Puerto Rico. Eisenberg called the exploit a highly profitable trading strategy and noted that he considered all his actions to be legal open market actions. It appears, however, that the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has a different interpretation of the facts. According to the FBI complaint, Eisenberg’s actions constitute both fraud and market manipulation.

Celsius wants to extend the deadline for claims as lawyer fees mount

Celsius Network is planning to file a motion to extend the deadline for users to submit claims by another month, extending the time limit to early February. Creditors of Celsius, however, do not seem to support the move, as fees for bankers, lawyers, and advisers have already reached $53 million in the bankruptcy case.

Winners and Losers

At the end of the week, Bitcoin (BTC) is at $16,554, Ether (ETH) at $1,196 and XRP at $0.34. The total market cap is at $794.23 billion, according to CoinMarketCap.

Among the biggest 100 cryptocurrencies, the top three altcoin gainers of the week are BitDAO (BIT) at 17.58%, OKB (OKB) at 12.68% and Internet Computer (ICP) at 11.46%.

The top three altcoin losers of the week are Chain (XCN) at -32.93%, Solana (SOL) AT -16.57%, and Axie Infinity (AXS) at -15.45%.

For more info on crypto prices, make sure to read Cointelegraphs market analysis.

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Crypto Crimes Rated: From the Twitter Hackers to Not Your Keyser, Not Your Coins

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Banking The Unbanked? How I Taught A Total Stranger In Kenya About Bitcoin

Most Memorable Quotations

I want Bitcoin to go down a lot further so I can buy some more.

Mark Cuban, billionaire entrepreneur

We expect that 2023 could be the year of decentralization and accelerated development of decentralized apps.

Nikita Zuborev, chief analyst at BestChange

British financial institutions and banks […] continue to want to participate in the digitalization of commerce, which starts with digital assets, monies and commodities.

Mitch Mechigian, partner at Blockchain Coinvestors

Customer class members should not have to stand in line along with secured or general unsecured creditors in these bankruptcy proceedings just to share in the diminished estate assets of the FTX Group and Alameda.

Creditors of FTX Group and Alameda Research

Fraudsters love volatility and current events. Anytime they can try to surf the contours of something very disruptive in the marketplace, they have a great deal of success.

Clayton LiaBraaten, senior executive adviser at Truecaller

Listening to these companies talk about Web3 initiatives, its clear they see digital engagement with customers and fans as a new aspect of the retail experience.

Steven Goulden, senior research analyst at Cumberland

Prediction of the Week 

Bitcoin not undervalued yet, says research as BTC price drifts nearer to $16K

Bitcoins price has been hovering around $17,000 for the majority of December, according to Cointelegraphs BTC price index.  

Based on the analysis of MAC_D, a pseudonymous contributor to the on-chain platform CryptoQuant, Bitcoin is not undervalued yet, as an indicator tracking transactions in profit and loss has yet to repeat its traditional bear market bottom sequence. 

Therefore, the BTC is likely to fall further, and spot hedging and down trend trading are required, noted MAC_D.

FUD of the Week 

Midas Investments closes down amid $63M DeFi portfolio deficit

While the FTX contagion continues, custodial investment platform Midas Investments has announced that it will cease operations due to a $63.3 million deficit in its decentralized finance portfolio. Midas has experienced some difficulties following the collapses of Terra, Celsius and FTX, which led to users withdrawing 60% of their funds over the course of six months.

Kraken quits Japan for the second time, blaming a weak crypto market

Cryptocurrency exchange Kraken has shut down its operations in Japan for the second time, blaming a weak crypto market. A blog post by the exchange announced the decision on Dec. 28. After closing in 2018, Kraken reopened its Tokyo headquarters during the bull market of 2020, offering spot trading on five major assets with plans to expand. Kraken’s clients in Japan will have until Jan. 31 to withdraw their funds from the exchange.

3Commas API leak victims demand refunds and apology for ‘gaslighting’

After months denying any hack or breach on its platform, 3Commas and its CEO Yuriy Sorokin finally admitted to a sizable API leak, recognizing that a database shared by a hacker was legitimate. Now, victims of the leak are demanding refunds and an apology from the crypto trading platform for being gaslighted. 3Commas has engaged in a back-and-forth with victims in recent months, denying leaks and claiming customers were phished.

Best Cointelegraph Features

Make sure Ethereum wins Steve Newcomb reveals zkSyncs prime directive

Silicon Valley veteran Steve Newcomb is on a mission to scale Ethereum to 10 million transactions per second with zk-Rollups. History suggests you shouldnt bet against him.

Mati Greenspans boss bribed him with 1 BTC to join Twitter: Hall of Flame

Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan signed up for Twitter and got into Bitcoin on the same day back in 2012.

Making the case that Bitcoin is not freedom: Pacific Bitcoin Panel

Is Bitcoin really bringing freedom to the world? Experts discussed the complexities of using Bitcoin as a tool for emancipation at a panel at Pacific Bitcoin.



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2023 will see the death of play-to-earn gaming

Developers have been focusing more on tokens than on making fun games. As a result, GameFi has been dying.

Play-to-earn gaming enabled by blockchain technology has grown exponentially over the few years. 

Gamers have embraced the opportunity to collect cryptocurrencies or ​nonfungible tokens (​NFTs​)​ that have been produced in blockchain-based games.

Through the advent of this new technology, players have been able to generate income by selling in-game NFTs or earning cryptocurrency rewards, both of which can be exchanged for fiat cash.

Because of this​, according to data from​ Absolute Reports​, the estimated value of the GameFi industry will grow to $2.8 billion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 20.4% ​over the same period. But such predictions may well prove to be unfounded.

Given the rate of exponential growth over recent years, one might think that there was absolutely no reason to believe the trend would not continue well into 2023 and beyond. Right? Wrong.

As we have seen with the ignominious case of former crypto king Sam Bankman-Fried and the implosion of FTX, a castle built on a flimsy foundation of sand can be easily washed away when the tide comes in and goes back out again.

Related: GameFi developers could be facing big fines and hard time

Or, as legendary investor Warren Buffett liked to put it: “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”

We may be about to learn who these people are. The fact of the matter is the play-to-earn gaming industry is not built on firm foundations. The foundations are fragile and flimsy, and this could well spell trouble in 2023. The whole edifice looks set to come crashing down.

The structure of the current GameFi market is token-centric and this can create a number of issues. Project owners issue their tokens which are listed on exchanges first before they announce that they are going to build games. Games are a utility of tokens they issue. So tokens come first, and contents later. This is why the quality and design of games in the blockchain space are so underrated.

Unique active wallets (UAWs) that used decentralized applications (DApps) in 2022. Source: DappRadar

An environment has been created in which the players are not all that interested in games themselves, which is a strange state of affairs for a gaming industry to find itself in. More and more of the players are, in reality, investors who want returns on investment.

The current structure creates the wrong kind of incentives and this is one of the reasons why the system is not working as it should. I would argue that DeFi Kingdom​s​, which is one of the better-known play-to-earn blockchain games out there, has been screwing with its tokenomics relentlessly by creating perverse incentives.

By now, generally speaking, the token market is in a downtrend and the speculative trading market is dead. An industry can survive for a certain amount of time on promise, expectation and unjustified hype. But, it can only do so for so long. Eventually, people begin to notice that they haven’t received what they have been promised. Patience starts to wear thin. They get angry, they get frustrated and they begin to withdraw. This begins as a trickle of the savviest players, but that can soon become a flood.

Related: Anonymous crypto developers belong in prison — and will be there soon

Those who have planned to secure funds by listing their tokens will have to reassess. Many will be forced to close their projects due to insufficient funds. The situation is becoming so acute that even hitherto bullish crypto venture capitalists (VCs) are also pausing new investments.

So, who is going to survive this investment drought? It looks unlikely that GameFi will. However, other blockchain gamings might do so.

One example is the Ethereum-powered, NFT-based fantasy football league operator Sorare has become a Web3 unicorn. While many of its competitors struggle, Sorare keeps on increasing its users and revenue during the darkest period. Their daily auction volume is impressive, at around 300-400​ Ether (​ETH​)​, and the number of users keeps increasing.

​Though ​its back end ​relies on blockchain, ​users ​do not perceive it as a ​GameFi​ project​. They do not provide their native tokens, but they do provide their content first on ​Ethereum, which very much looks like the way to go for the industry at large.

So GameFi may well die in 2023, but that does not mean that all is lost. Death is a necessary part of evolution. ​​From ​it, new life may already be beginning to emerge.

Shinnosuke “Shin” Murata is the founder of blockchain games developer Murasaki. He joined Japanese conglomerate Mitsui & Co. in 2014, doing automotive finance and trading in Malaysia, Venezuela and Bolivia. He left Mitsui to join a second-year startup called Jiraffe as the company’s first sales representative and later joined STVV, a Belgian football club, as its chief operating officer and assisted the club with creating a community token. He founded Murasaki in the Netherlands in 2019.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.



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US lawmakers under pressure following FTX collapse: Report

In response to FTX's fall, United States lawmakers are reevaluating the crypto industry's regulatory needs for 2023.

Legislators in the United States seem to be reevaluating the crypto industry and its regulatory needs in light of FTX's collapse. According to the Wall Street Journal, since the crypto exchange filed for bankruptcy in November, lawmakers have been under pressure to set a new regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies. 

Several proposals are in the works that would apply existing banking, securities, and tax rules to cryptocurrencies, and lawmakers are calling on the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to adopt an aggressive approach to the crypto market.

In a December House hearing, Rep. Jake Auchincloss, who is also a member of the bipartisan Congressional Blockchain Caucus, reportedly noted that "it’s time for the blockchain investors and entrepreneurs to build things that matter or to lose more credibility,” adding that in 14 years crypto has only delivered "white papers and podcasts".

Senator Roger Marshall, an advocate for blockchain technology's potential to stop fraud, is also pushing for tighter regulation in the United States. "Someone needs to convince me that it's not all just a Ponzi game," he claimed.

Related: Companies and investors may need to return billions in funds paid by FTX

Among the few legislators willing to stand up for the crypto industry, Rep. Patrick McHenry stated that it is necessary "to separate out the bad actions of an individual from the good created by an industry and an innovation.” The House Financial Services Committee will be led by McHenry in the new Congress.

FTX former CEO Sam Bankman-Fried's lobby in Washington was focused on a bill that would give the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) authority to regulate cryptocurrencies. The bill was expected to be included in the budget spending package for 2023, but now it's unlikely to advance due to the past weeks' developments.

As reported by Cointelegraph, Bankman-Fried was a significant donor to Republicans and Democrats in Washington. Earlier this year, he considered spending up to one billion dollars to help influence 2024 presidential election campaigns.

Open Secrets, a platform that tracks money in politics, lists SBF as the sixth-largest political contributor for the 2021-2022 cycle, with a total contribution of $39.8 million for candidates and political parties.



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Friday, December 30, 2022

10 crypto tweets that aged like milk: 2022 edition

Sam Bankman-Fried, Do Kwon and Alex Mashinsky might look back on this year and wish they had hired a social media adviser or logged off Twitter.

To put it lightly, it has been a wild year for the crypto sector.

In the span of less than 12 months, the third-most valuable stablecoin imploded, leading to a domino effect that saw crypto lender Celsius go bankrupt, Three Arrows Capital’s founders go runabout and one of crypto’s most “altruistic” executives flown home in cuffs.

In this article, Cointelegraph has selected 10 crypto-related tweets that have aged like spoilt milk.

Do Kwon — “Steady lads”

On May 10, just as the algo-stablecoin formerly known as TerraUSD started to fall below its dollar peg, the Terraform Labs founder attempted to allay fears of a further depeg, tweeting: “Deploying more capital - steady lads.”

Well, we all know what happened after. The collapse of the Terra ecosystem in May 2022 saw more than $40 billion wiped from the market in that month alone.

Since then, Do Kwon and the remaining Terra community have tried to revive the project with a newer stablecoin coming into the works. TerraUSD has since been rebranded to TerraClassicUSD (USTC) and is worth $0.02 at the time of writing.

Do Kwon — “Your size is not size”

Next on the list is Kwon’s famous response to crypto trader Algod, who outlined on March 9 that if LUNA “breaks new ATH’s I will short it with size. It’s a big ass ponzi, pretty sure VC’s will also hedge their investments on perps.”

Kwon then hit back by essentially calling Algod poor, stating, “Yeah but your size is not size” before adding, “$10 short incoming, everyone take cover.”

This of course was memed back to Kwon on many occasions during and after he went into damage control mode as TerraUSD spiraled out of control.

SBF — “Sell me all you want. Then go fuck off.”

Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) has a near-endless amount of statements that likely look terrible in current circumstances. Not only has he lied about “assets are fine” but shortly before his company filed for bankruptcy, the FTX founder also left us with the $3 Solana (SOL) meme.

In a debate on Twitter from January, crypto trader CoinMamba got under SBF’s skin in January 2021, suggesting that SOL was a great shorting opportunity over the price of $3.

After a back in forth in which the two were trying to iron out a bet on the future price, SBF finally had enough of CoinMamba’s SOL taunting and said:

“I’ll buy as much SOL as you have, right now, at $3. Sell me all you want. Then go fuck off.”

The comment became legendary in the crypto community, particularly after the price of SOL went to an all-time high of $259.96 on Nov. 6, 2021.

However, CoinMamba appears to have had the last laugh, as Bankman-Fried’s firm catastrophically collapsed a year later.

Replying to the nearly two-year-old thread, CoinMamba gave Bankman-Fried a taste of his own medicine. “I’ll buy everything you have, right now, at $3. Sell me all you want. Then go fuck off.”

Alex Mashinsky — “All funds are safe.”

Amid the LUNA fiasco in May, rumors started to float that Celsius was having liquidity issues and could be heading for serious trouble, while others had claimed the firm had already been “completely wiped out.”

In a bid to quickly assure Celsius customers, Mashinsky responded to the rumors by stating in a May 12 tweet: “Notwithstanding the extreme market volatility, Celsius has not experienced any significant losses,” adding:

“All funds are safe.”

These four words went on to become a harbinger of doom for the industry.

A month later, on June 12, the firm paused all withdrawals. On July 13, it filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Users are still battling to get even a portion of their funds back as we speak.

Celsius — “If you don’t have free and unlimited access to your own funds, are they really *your* funds?”

Accompanying Mashinsky is a classic from Celsius Network, in which the firm was touting the whole “unbank yourself” catchphrase. The crypto lender often suggested it was more trustworthy than the banking system.

In a Nov. 14 tweet from 2019, Celsius Network tweeted, “If you don’t have free and unlimited access to your own funds, are they really *your* funds?” before adding:

“#UnbankYourself with Celsius and join the next generation of financial services — no fees, no penalties, no lockups, just profit.”

That statement hasn’t fared too well in 2022.

Amid its Chapter 11 bankruptcy process, users have had zero access to their locked-up funds, while profits are in doubt, too, considering they might not get all the funds back.

Voyager — “We have the experience to [...] weather any bear market.”

Following a similar line to Celsius and Mashinky, fellow bankrupted crypto lender Voyager published a lengthy Twitter thread in June, which now looks a bit out of place as 2022 comes to a close.

In an attempt to assure customers that the company was safe during the bear market following the collapse of the Terra ecosystem, Voyager assured customers it carefully manages “risk” and its mission is to “make crypto as simple as safe as possible.”

“Our straightforward, low-risk approach to asset management is the result of our decades of experience leading companies through market cycles. We have the experience to back our decisions and weather any bear market.”

Over the next couple of weeks, it was widely reported that the company was facing liquidity issues, and by July 5, Voyager had filed for bankruptcy.

TechCrunch — “The collapse of ETH is inevitable”

Next in line is a tweet dating back to 2018 from fintech news outlet TechCrunch that reads: “The collapse of ETH is inevitable.”

The tweet is accompanied by an extremely bearish article in which the author, Jeremy Rubin, predicts that “ETH — the asset, not the Ethereum Network itself — will go to zero.”

Rubin, who disclosed at the end of the article that he was a Bitcoin (BTC) and Litecoin (LTC) hodler at the time, bizarrely suggests that if the Ethereum network completes everything on its roadmap, no one will have any use for the asset.

At the time of writing, however, Ether (ETH) sits at $1,196 and presents a host of reasons for people to want to hold it: staking rewards, borrowing, lending and deflationary tokenomics.

Additionally, it also serves utility purposes, such as pushing through transactions on the largest smart contract network on the market.

Click “Collect” below the illustration at the top of the page or follow this link.

Avraham Eisenberg — “What are you gonna do, arrest me?”

Avraham Eisenberg, the crypto trader behind the $110-million exploit of decentralized exchange Mango Markets, makes the list due to a tweet from October that looks terrible in current circumstances.

The tweet itself revolves around a rather harmless back-and-forth regarding Eisenberg’s incorrect use of the @inversebrah tag, with Sheik Swampert noting, “You don’t call inversebrah on yourself dude.”

In response, Eisenberg said, “What are you gonna do, arrest me?”

As of this week, Eisenberg has actually been arrested and is facing market manipulation charges over the Mango Markets exploit, which he had consistently maintained was “a highly profitable trading strategy” facilitated via “legal open market actions.”

As such, this tweet has fast become a popular meme that will most likely live on for a long time in Crypto Twitter folklore.

Fortune — SBF, the “next Warren Buffet”

American business magazine Fortune has also got itself on this list for speaking in glowing terms of SBF back in August.

In a Twitter thread, the publication labeled him the “de facto leader of the crypto community” before suggesting that he was the “next Warren Buffet, Crypto’s white knight” and “Prince of risk.”

Kevin O’Leary — “I’m going to use FTX to increase my allocation”

Shark Tank’s Kevin O’Leary, also known as Mr. Wonderful, makes the list for his backing of FTX and its former CEO, Sam Bankman-Fried.

O’Leary’s now-deleted tweet came on Aug. 10, 2021, after he signed a deal to become an FTX spokesperson. In the tweet, he emphasized:

“Finally solved my compliance problems with #cryptocurrencies I’m going to use FTX to increase my allocation and use the platform to manage my portfolios.”

Unfortunately for O’Leary, FTX was anything but compliant, and the millionaire said he has likely lost the entire $15 million he was paid to be FTX’s spokesperson after taxes, agent fees and all the crypto he kept on the exchange was lost after the firm’s bankruptcy.



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Crypto Stories: How Bitcoin helped a couple start a family

These Bitcoiners from London have "no regrets" about their decision to sell Bitcoin to start a family.

Bitcoin (BTC) gains helped “Noodle,” a London-based Bitcoiner, to afford in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatments for his family. Noodle’s story comes to life in the latest edition of Cointelegraph’s Crypto Stories.

IVF treatments can be expensive, with success rates ranging from 4% to 38%, depending on various factors. Fortunately, profits from buying and holding Bitcoin provided the necessary funds for Noodle to start a family.

Noodle, who first heard about Bitcoin in 2012, decided to sell some of his BTC to pay for IVF treatment for his wife. He favored selling BTC over taking out a loan, converting over $70,000 in Bitcoin into fiat currency over a few years to pay for the treatments.

Noodle’s journey with Bitcoin began when he was at the gym. An acquaintance introduced him to the Silk Road, a now-defunct marketplace where users could buy and sell various items using BTC. Noodle was convinced to buy 7 BTC at $57 each and ended up using it to buy cannabis online.

From that point on, Noodle fell down the rabbit holes of finance, education and the world of Bitcoin. He even convinced his wife, whom he had been with since 2008, to invest some of their wedding money into Bitcoin. Little did they know, this investment would eventually fund IVF treatments to help them have children.

Related: Crypto Stories: Dr. Adam Back shares his life of hacks

Despite the initial stigma around IVF, the Noodle family was able to have two children thanks to the profits from their Bitcoin investment. Noodle told Cointelegraph that he has “no regrets” about his decision to sell BTC to start a family and emphasized the importance of being able to make informed financial decisions.

For many people, the decision between holding Bitcoin or using it for practical purposes can be a difficult one. However, for Noodle, the choice to sell was a clear one, and he is grateful for the opportunity that his Bitcoin investment provided.



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3 reasons why Bitcoin is likely heading below $16,000

Reasons for bearishness include U.S. Federal Reserve tightening, the absence of leverage buyers' demand, and fearful BTC option traders.

December will likely be remembered by Bitcoin's (BTC) fake breakout above $18,000, but apart from that brief overshoot, its trajectory was entirely bearish. In fact, the downward trend that currently offers an $18,850 resistance could bring the BTC price below $16,000 by mid-January.

Bitcoin/USD price index, 12-hour. Source: TradingView

A handful of reasons can explain the negative movement, including the reported withdrawal of Mazars Group auditing firm from the cryptocurrency sector on Dec. 16. The company previously handled proof-of-reserve audit services for Binance, KuCoin and Crypto.com.

Additionally, one can point to the bankruptcy of one of the largest cryptocurrency miners in the United States, Core Scientific. The publicly listed company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on Dec. 21 due to rising energy costs, increasing competition, and the Bitcoin price crash in 2022.

The liquidity crisis at the crypto lender and trading desk Genesis Global and its parent company, Digital Currency Group (DCG), sparked fear among investors. More importantly, DCG manages the $10.5 billion Grayscale Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC). The fund is currently trading at a 47% discount to its net asset value in part due to investor speculation on its exposure to Genesis Global.

Negative pressure from the U.S. Federal Reserve tightening movement

Apart from the bearish newsflow, the macroeconomic scenario deteriorated after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 50 bps on Dec. 14. Analysts, including Jim Bianco, head of institutional research firm Bianco Research, said that the monetary authority would maintain its tighter monetary policy in 2023.

Investors fear that Bitcoin could break below the current descending trend support at $16,100, triggering a sharp correction. TH3 Cryptologist, a veteran crypto trader, points out a descending wedge potentially causing a $14,000 low by February 2023.

But let's also look at Bitcoin derivatives data to understand if the price action and recent news have impacted crypto investors' sentiment.

Bitcoin buyers' demand using leverage are yet to be seen

Retail traders usually avoid quarterly futures due to their price difference from spot markets. Meanwhile, professional traders prefer these instruments because they prevent the fluctuation of funding rates in a perpetual futures contract.

The three-month futures annualized premium should trade between +4% to +8% in healthy markets to cover costs and associated risks. Thus, when the futures trade at a discount versus regular spot markets, it shows a lack of confidence from leverage buyers — a bearish indicator.

Bitcoin 3-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

The above chart shows that derivatives traders remain bearish as the Bitcoin futures premium stands negative. Even more concerning, not even the $18,000 pump on Dec. 14 was able to shift those whales and market makers to a balanced leverage demand between longs and shorts.

Still, the lack of demand for leverage buyers does not necessarily indicate traders expect an immediate adverse price action. For this reason, one should analyze Bitcoin's options markets to exclude externalities specific to the futures instrument.

Related: $8K dive or $22K rebound? Bitcoin traders anticipate Q1 BTC price action

Options traders getting comfortable with downside risks

The 25% delta skew is a telling sign when market makers and arbitrage desks are overcharging for upside or downside protection.

In bear markets, options investors give higher odds for a price dump, causing the skew indicator to rise above 10%. On the other hand, bullish markets tend to drive the skew indicator below -10%, meaning the bearish put options are discounted.

Bitcoin 30-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas.ch

The delta skew peaked at 23% on Dec. 29, signaling that options traders are uncomfortable with downside risks.

As the 30-day delta skew stands at 18%, both options and futures markets point to pro traders fearing that the $16,100 support will likely be tested.

Therefore, the reasons for investors' bearishness are the continuation of higher interest rates, absence of leverage buyers' demand, and BTC option traders positioning for more downside.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.



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Thursday, December 29, 2022

Bank of India report calls for regulatory coordination on crypto market challenges

The RBI’s latest financial stability report accentuated the negative about cryptocurrency and reminds the world that India is looking for global action on crypto regulation.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has appealed to the country’s presidency of the G20 group of the world’s largest economies as a pulpit to call for the development of a global regulatory framework for crypto assets. In its latest financial stability report, released Dec. 29, the bank again expressed its concerns about the burgeoning crypto ecosystem and suggested parts of it could be banned.

The report was generally upbeat about current conditions in the country, despite “strong global headwinds,” saying, “the Indian economy and domestic financial system remain resilient.” The tone changed drastically in its discussion of crypto, however, as it highlighted a familiar laundry list of crises that struck the cryptoverse in 2022. It noted crypto’s volatility, high correlation with equities and its inadequacy as a hedge against inflation, as well as issues with governance, and added:

“Leverage is a constant theme running across the crypto ecosystem, making failures rapid and losses huge and sudden.”

Be that as it may, rising prices in that ecosystem drive crypto’s popularity, especially in the “younger segment of the population.” The report concluded:

“To address potential future financial stability risks and to protect consumers and investors, it is important to arrive at a common approach to crypto assets.”

The report saw three options for crypto regulation. The first was “the same-risk-same-regulatory-outcome principle.” Second, it suggested the possibility of a prohibition of crypto assets “since their real-life use cases are next to negligible.” This option would be complicated by “different legal systems and individual rights vis-à-vis state powers” globally. A third option, “let it implode” without regulatory action, was considered too risky for mainstream finance to pursue. The report noted that:

“Under India’s G20 presidency, one of the priorities is to develop a framework for global regulation, including the possibility of prohibition, of unbacked crypto assets, stablecoins and DeFi.”

Related: Crypto could spark the next financial crisis, says India’s RBI head

Crypto regulation was a G20 priority for India from the beginning of its presidency. Despite the government’s generally negative position on cryptocurrency, there are an estimated 115 million users in India. The RBI is more bullish on central bank digital currency. India also has one of the world’s largest Web 3 workforces.



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FTX’s Liquid exchange hopes to return customer assets next year

The exchange said it intends to outline further details in a report in January 2023.

The FTX-owned Japanese crypto exchange Liquid has announced plans to begin the process of returning customer assets in 2023. 

According to the Dec. 29 statement issued on its blog, the exchange is preparing to return assets entrusted by both customers from FTX Japan and Liquid Japan, and is working on a report for January 2023 that would further outline the details. 

A statement from the team read:

“For the assets entrusted to us by our customers at FTX Japan and Liquid Japan, we are proceeding with system development so that withdrawals will be possible from the Liquid Japan web version.” 

According to Liquid, the system intends to allow users who are unable to access FTX, to check their FTX Japan balance from the Liquid Japan web version, and also make withdrawals from there. However, customers using the Liquid Japan platform are expected to be able to withdraw as usual.

On Dec. 13, the exchange reassured its community on Twitter that they were cooperating with FTX Debtors, in relation to Liquid, and that it has not forgotten about its clients. 

Related: FTX reportedly gets 3 more months to stop all operations in Japan

On Nov 15, Liquid halted all withdrawals following the liquidity crunch faced by its parent company FTX. 

Shortly after on Nov. 21, the exchange suspended all trading operations on its platform in line with instructions from FTX Trading. According to the statement issued, Liquid exchange paused “all forms of trading” because of FTX's Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing.

On Dec 9, Cointelegraph reported that Japanese authorities had postponed FTX Japan’s suspension deadline until March 9, 2023, extending the original time limit by three months because the firm had failed to return assets from custody to creditors. In mid-November, Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) initially requested FTX Japan to suspend business orders by Dec. 9.

Liquid, founded in 2014, is a cryptocurrency exchange licensed under Japan’s Payment Services Act through its Japanese operating entity, Quoine Corporation. As previously reported by Cointelegraph, FTX acquired Liquid Group and its subsidiaries in February 2022.



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Over 1,400 Chinese firms operating in blockchain industry, national whitepaper shows

Despite partial crypto bans, the Chinese Government has included blockchain technology in official state development policy.

On Dec 29, the state-owned China Academy for Information and Communications Technology, or CAICT, published a document titled "2022 Blockchain Whitepaper." According to the paper, more than 1,400 blockchain firms are currently based in Mainland China. Together with the U.S., the two countries represent a 52% market share in terms of global blockchain enterprises. 

The CAICT also disclosed that around 48 post-secondary institutions across China have introduced "blockchain engineering" related degrees and certifications. In the report, the institution detailed four types of blockchain technologies with high application potential.

First, "settlement chains" would allow transparent publication of telecom fees for firms such as China Mobile and China Unicom. Second, the Zhejiang Cold Chains would enable consumers to verify the source of their food by scanning the products' QR codes. Third, the Trusple cross-border payments platform can help buyers and sellers obtain due diligence info on their counterparties.

Finally, blockchain monitoring platforms can help financial regulators spot order irregularities between different exchanges. Major Chinese tech giants such as Tencent, Ant Financial, Huawei, and Alibaba, have all created "blockchain alliances" in the past years for their respective operations.

China currently allows ownership of cryptocurrencies and nonfungible tokens, or NFTs, with their legality protected in courts of law. However, the country has banned the issuance of initial coin offerings along with digital exchanges and cryptocurrency mining. 

Despite setbacks, the Government of China has included blockchain developments on its official national agenda. In October, the State Council of the People's Republic of China, stated that it would prioritize "cloud computing, blockchain, and AI" as means of improving data management and government services. On Dec 28, Chinese officials announced that a national exchange for the trading of NFTs and digital asset copyrights would launch on Jan 1, 2023. 



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BTC price preserves $16.5K, but funding rates raise risk of new Bitcoin lows

Bitcoin is fooling no one with its current behavior, with bearish takes everywhere and the yearly close just two days away.

Bitcoin (BTC) staged a modest recovery on Dec. 29 as United States stock markets rebounded in step.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

$10,000 BTC price targets stick

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD recovering above $16,600 at the Wall Street open after wicking below the $16,500 for a second day.

The pair remained unappealing to traders, many of whom feared a deeper retracement may still occur around the new year.

In a list of potential “capitulation targets,” Crypto Tony doubled down on $10,000 and lower for Bitcoin, while also revealing expectations for Ether (ETH) to dip as low as $300.

“Things change quick, but if we hit these areas I begin to ladder,” part of accompanying commentary read.

Daan Crypto Trades meanwhile put the current spot price at the bottom of an area which “must hold” for BTC bulls to have a shot at upside.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Daan Cypto Trades/ Twitter

“The entire market looks bad... Thing is that some altcoins look even worse,” Il Capo of Crypto continued, predicting forthcoming altcoin losses of up to 90%.

The downside thesis was supported by derivatives markets on the day, with funding rates positive while price action failed to rally.

“Layman terms, Long/Short ratio is positive first time since May, means more Longs than Shorts now, OI and Funding is positive, means people are betting on perpetual market BTC will pump, price structure looks bad and this can be easily another local top here and dump. Be careful!” popular commentator aQua summarized.

BTC/USD perpetual futures chart (Bybit) with long/ short ratio. Source: aQua/ Twitter

A slightly more hopeful perspective came from Blockware head analyst Joe Burnett, who argued that a painful period in Bitcoin’s history was slowly coming to an end.

“Everyone is bearish, yet Bitcoin is still trading around the same price it was in June ($17.5k),” he reasoned.

“The mining industry has been decimated, and many of the weak hands (BTC and ASICs) have been purged. Soon we will begin another slow ascent.”

U.S. dollar strength "wants to bounce"

Short-term BTC price action got a boost from U.S. equities on the day, with the S&P 500 up 1.4% and the Nasdaq Composite Index gaining 2.1% in the first hour’s trading.

Related: Bitcoin price would surge past $600K if ‘hardest asset’ matches gold

The U.S. dollar continued a broader consolidation after two straight days of gains for the U.S. dollar index (DXY).

“Bitcoin swept the low / 16.5k, filled the FVG and put in a 3rd drive with multiple H1 bullish divergences. It is now or never for the bulls to take this back up,” entrepreneur Mark Cullen commented.

“Lose the 16.2k level and the yearly low will be in threat & lower + $DXY looks like it wants to bounce!”
U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView

With just two days until the weekly, monthly, quarterly and yearly close, BTC/USD was down around 60% year-to-date, 3% for December and 14.2% in Q4, data from Coinglass confirmed.

BTC/USD monthly returns chart (sceenshot). Source: Coinglass

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.



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Wednesday, December 28, 2022

Fidelity plans NFT marketplace: Nifty Newsletter, Dec. 21–27

Investment firm Fidelity recently filed trademarks that showed its intentions to enter the NFT and metaverse space.

In this week’s newsletter, read about investment giant Fidelity planning to enter the nonfungible token (NFT) space and how Italy’s NFT market will grow. Check out how North Korean hackers use phishing websites to target NFT holders and listen to a conversation with Crypto Raiders in the NFT Steez podcast. And, don’t forget this week’s Nifty News featuring Japanese gaming firm Square Enix investing millions in an NFT game developer. 

Fidelity plans NFT marketplace and financial services in the metaverse

On Dec. 21, investment firm Fidelity filed three trademark applications to the United States Patent Trademark Office. The trademark filings cover NFTs, NFT marketplaces and metaverse investment services, suggesting that the firm has plans to enter the space.

One of the firm’s focuses appears to be the metaverse, showing that it may someday offer investment services within virtual worlds. The offerings may include various funds like mutual funds and retirement funds.

Continue reading…

Italy to create the crypto art renaissance: NFT market report

A recent report released by Research and Markets predicted that Italy is set to have a 47.6% growth in its NFT market by the end of 2022. With this, the Italian NFT market’s total value will be $671 million.

The report also projected that the country’s NFT industry will have an annual growth rate of 34.6% for the next five years, with the spending value predicted to hit around $3.6 billion in 2028.

Continue reading…

North Korean hackers stealing NFTs using nearly 500 phishing domains

A day before Christmas, blockchain security firm SlowMist highlighted that North Korean hackers had launched a broad campaign targeting NFT users. According to the report, the attackers created almost 500 phishing domains to lure potential victims.

Some websites have impersonated popular NFT marketplaces like OpenSea, X2Y2 and Rarible. The fake websites have also tried to imitate a project associated with the recent World Cup.

Continue reading…

Nifty News: Square Enix invests into NFT gaming firm, Beeple speaks on NFT art future and more

Japanese gaming giant Square Enix recently invested around $53 million to create mobile and blockchain games and start a metaverse initiative. An announcement hinted that the company is partnering with game developer Gumi to make a game-NFT-focused marketplace.

Continue reading…

Check out Cointelegraph’s NFT Steez podcast

Thanks for reading this digest of the week’s most notable developments in the NFT space. Come again next Wednesday for more reports and insights into this actively evolving space.



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Price analysis 12/28: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, DOGE, ADA, MATIC, DOT, LTC, UNI

Bitcoin and select altcoins have turned down from overhead resistance levels, indicating that bears remain in control.

Gold has been an outperformer in 2022 compared to the United States equities markets and Bitcoin (BTC). The yellow metal is almost flat for the year while the S&P 500 is down more than 19% and Bitcoin has plunged roughly 64%. 

The sharp fall in Bitcoin’s price has hurt both short-term and long-term investors alike. According to Glassnode data, 1,889,585 Bitcoin held by short-term holders was at a loss as of Dec. 26 while the loss-making tally of long-term holders was 6,057,858 Bitcoin.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

In spite of gold’s good showing and Bitcoin’s dismal performance in 2022, billionaire investor Mark Cuban continues to favor Bitcoin over gold. While speaking on Bill Maher’s Club Random podcast, Cuban told Maher, “If you have gold, you’re dumb as fuck.” He advised Maher to “just get Bitcoin.”

Could Bitcoin lead a recovery in the final few days of the year or will the crypto markets close the year with a whimper? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin has been stuck inside a tight range between $16,559 and the 20-day exponential moving average ($16,877) for the past few days. This indicates that both the bulls and the bears are lying low during the holiday season.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA is sloping down gradually and the relative strength index (RSI) is near 43, indicating a slight advantage to bears.

If the price turns down and slips below $16,500, the selling could pick up pace and the BTC/USDT pair could fall to the $16,000 to $15,476 support zone.

Buyers are expected to fiercely defend this zone because if it collapses, the pair could start the next leg of the downtrend.

If the price turns up from the current level and breaks above the moving averages, it will suggest that bulls are attempting a comeback. The pair could then soar to $18,388 where the rally may again hit a roadblock.

ETH/USDT

The failure of the bulls to push Ether (ETH) above the 20-day EMA ($1,223), indicates that the bears are defending the level with vigor. That may have led the bulls to surrender and close their positions.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The pair could now slump to $1,182. If this support fails to hold, the ETH/USDT pair may sink to the robust support at $1,150. If the price bounces off this level with strength, it will suggest that the pair may consolidate between $1,150 and $1,352 for a few days.

On the other hand, if the price nosedives below $1,150, the pair will complete a bearish head and shoulders pattern. The pair could first decline to $1,075 and then plunge toward the pattern target of $948.

BNB/USDT

Buyers tried to catapult BNB (BNB) above the overhead resistance zone between $250 and $255 on Dec. 27 but the bears held their ground. This suggests that the bears are trying to flip the $250 level into resistance.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The BNB/USDT pair could now slide to the immediate support at $236. If the price rebounds off this level, it will indicate that the pair may remain stuck inside a tight range between $236 and $255 for a while longer. That could increase the likelihood of a break above the overhead resistance.

On the contrary, if the price tumbles below $236, it will suggest that the bears are trying to assert their supremacy. The pair could then retest the critical support at $220. A break below this level could open the doors for a possible dip to $200.

XRP/USDT

XRP (XRP) scaled above the 20-day EMA ($0.36) on Dec. 26 but the bulls could not sustain the tempo and overcome the barrier at the resistance line of the symmetrical triangle. This may have tempted the short-term bulls to book profits.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The XRP/USDT pair fell back below the 20-day EMA on Dec. 28. The pair could now decline to the support line of the triangle. This suggests that the pair may extend its stay inside the triangle for some more time.

The next trending move is likely to start after the price escapes the triangle. If the price plummets below the triangle, the pair could drop to $0.30 and then to $0.25. Alternatively, if the price turns up and breaks above the triangle, the pair could rally to $0.41.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) has dropped to the crucial support at $0.07 on Dec. 28. This level successfully held off assaults by the bears on three previous occasions, hence the bulls will again try to protect it.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price rebounds off the current level and breaks above the downtrend line, the bearish descending triangle pattern will be negated. That could result in short-covering by the aggressive bears, propelling the price to $0.11.

Conversely, if the price breaks and closes below $0.07, the descending triangle pattern will complete. That could start a downward move toward $0.06 and thereafter to the pivotal support near $0.05.

ADA/USDT

Cardano’s (ADA) recovery stalled just below the 20-day EMA ($0.27) on Dec. 27, indicating that relief rallies are being sold into.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears will try to sink the price below the strong support near $0.25. If they manage to do that, the ADA/USDT pair could slump to the support line of the falling wedge pattern. This level has acted as a strong support on several occasions, hence the bulls will again try to defend it aggressively.

On the upside, a break and close above the 20-day EMA will be the first indication that the selling pressure could be reducing. The pair could then advance toward the downtrend line.

MATIC/USDT

The bulls failed to pierce the 20-day EMA ($0.82) on Dec. 27, indicating that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. Polygon (MATIC) could slip to the immediate support at $0.75.

MATIC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price breaks below $0.75, the MATIC/USDT pair could fall to the strong support at $0.69. This is an important level to keep an eye on because if it cracks, the pair could start a downtrend. The next support on the downside is $0.52.

If the price turns up from the $0.75, it will suggest that the bulls are buying on minor dips. They will then try to clear the overhead hurdle at the 20-day EMA and thrust the price toward $0.97.

Related: Bitcoin beats Tesla stock in 2022 as BTC price heads for 60% losses

DOT/USDT

In a strong downtrend, the relief rallies are usually shallow and do not last long. That is what happened in Polkadot (DOT), which turned down on Dec. 27 and broke below the $4.37 support on Dec. 28.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Both moving averages are trending down and the RSI is near the oversold territory, indicating that bears are firmly in the driver's seat. If the price sustains below $4.37, the DOT/USDT pair could plummet to the next support at $4.

The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-day EMA ($4.73). The pair could then rise to the 50-day SMA ($5.21). A trend change will be signaled after bulls thrust the price above the downtrend line.

LTC/USDT

Litecoin (LTC) jumped above the moving averages on Dec. 26 but the bulls could not sustain the momentum. This suggests that demand dries up at higher levels.

LTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The LTC/USDT pair dropped back below the moving averages on Dec. 27 and the bears are trying to pull the price below the uptrend line on Dec. 28. If they manage to do that, the pair could fall further to $65 and later to $61.

Contrarily, if the price turns up and breaks above the moving averages, it will suggest that the bulls are buying on dips. The bulls will then again attempt to kick the price to the overhead resistance at $75.

UNI/USDT

The long wick on Uniswap’s (UNI) Dec. 27 candlestick shows that bears continue to sell on relief rallies near the 20-day EMA ($5.42).

UNI/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears maintained their selling pressure on Dec. 28 and are trying to sustain the price below the support line of the triangle. There is strong support near $5 but if this level gives way, the UNI/USDT pair could start a downward move to $4.60.

If buyers want to prevent the decline, they will have to quickly push the price back above the moving averages. That could trap the aggressive bears and propel the pair toward the resistance line of the triangle.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.



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MicroStrategy adds to Bitcoin stake despite steep loss

The firm's Bitcoin holdings have declined 45% from their average purchase price of $30,397.

According to a new filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, software analytics firm MicroStrategy said that it acquired 2,395 Bitcoins (BTC) at an average price of $17,181 for a total of $42.8 million during the period Nov. 1 and Dec. 21. Subsequent to the development, the company sold 704 BTC at $16,776 per coin for a total of $11.8 million on Dec. 22. On Dec. 24, MicroStrategy acquired approximately 810 BTC for $13.6 million in cash, at an average price of $16,845 per coin. 

In a Bloomberg interview published earlier this year, CEO and blockchain personality Michael Saylor told reporters: "We're only acquiring and holding Bitcoin, right? That's our strategy. We're not sellers." Today's filing represents the first publicly reported BTC sale by the firm in recent memory. In supporting the decision, MicroStrategy wrote: 

"MicroStrategy plans to carry back the capital losses resulting from this transaction against previous capital gains, to the extent such carrybacks are available under the federal income tax laws currently in effect, which may generate a tax benefit."

After the aforementioned transactions, MicroStrategy now holds 132,500 BTC with an average purchase price of $30,397 and total book value of $4.03 billion. However, their market value has declined to $2.20 billion at the time of publication.

MicroStrategy previously disclosed on Sept. 9 that the company may issue or sell up to $500 million worth of common stock. Between Oct. 1 and Dec. 27, the company sold 218,575 units for total net proceeds of $46.4 million. Michael Saylor, the firm's CEO, is currently embroiled in a lawsuit brought by the DC Attorney General on allegations of tax evasion.



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Bitcoin beats Tesla stock in 2022 as BTC price heads for 60% losses

Bitcoin may be in line for worse losses in the new year, analysts say, but BTC price action has a least fared better than TSLA.

Bitcoin (BTC) circled $16,750 after the Dec. 28 Wall Street open after stocks dragged markets lower.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Bitcoin analysts stick to downside fears

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked BTC/USD as it recovered from local lows of $16,559 on Bitstamp.

After days of barely any movement up or down, Bitcoin finally saw a flicker of action as traditional markets opened after the Christmas break. Unfortunately for bulls, volatility was to the downside, with BTC/USD seeing its lowest levels since Dec. 20.

On equities markets, United States indexes improved after a weak first day, which nonetheless failed to leave much of an impression on BTC commentators, many of whom stuck to grim short-term price forecasts.

“I can't stress this enough,” Toni Ghinea wrote in part of a Twitter update.

“The sell-off will accelerate in the coming weeks. This bear market is far from over.”

Accompanying charts showed targets for Bitcoin and several altcoins, with Ether (ETH) due a trip as low as $600.

Bitcoin, Ether, MATIC and ADA price charts. Source: Toni Ghinea/Twitter

Fellow analytics account Illiquid Markets likewise told followers to “be prepared for even lower prices in 2023,” with these to be “lower than most expect.”

Amid an absence of buyer interest, only MicroStrategy and its CEO, Michael Saylor, were on record for increasing BTC exposure.

The firm, already the public company with the largest Bitcoin treasury, added another 2,500 BTC to its reserves, it confirmed in a filing.

Down, but better than Tesla

At $16,700, meanwhile, BTC/USD traded at around 60% down year-to-date, with three days until the yearly close.

Related: Bitcoin underperforms stocks, gold for the first time since 2018

This was noticeably comparable to Tesla stock, which at $113 was on track to seal year-to-date losses of 72% or more.

For Mike McGlone, senior macro strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, there was enough evidence in the assets’ performance to entertain the possibility of Bitcoin coming out on top.

“The near certainty of declining Bitcoin supply vs. the rising amount of Tesla shares outstanding favors outperformance by the crypto, if the rules of economics apply,” research he posted on Twitter on Dec. 19 read.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s offloading of TSLA in 2022 remained on others’ radar. Discussing trading activity at the firm on Dec. 25, analyst Christopher Bloomstran described both Tesla’s BTC stake and shareholders as “suffering mightily” this year.

“Since the March 15, 2021 rebranding, Tesla and Bitcoin are down 48% and 70%, respectively. Great fun,” he summarized.

BTC/USD vs. TSLA chart. Source: TradingView

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.



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